Week 7 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

Week 7 NFL Predictions

Coming off a .500 week, we need to get back ahead of the "experts."

Still sitting at 55-36 ATS for the season. Derrick just behind at 48-43.

I'm not going to guarantee 10 wins this week, but I'm feeling 10 wins.

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Thursday Night Football

New York Giants (1-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-4-1) [-4.5]

Tommy: Eagles (-4.5). This line has gotten extremely dangerous. I was on the fence at -3.5 and it moved another point. I'm still going to lay the points. I'm developing my formula moving forward and no betting on New York is part of that formula. Fading the entire NFC East is another part of the formula, but all 4 teams match up this week.

Derrick: Eagles (-4.5). Despite the plague of injuries Philly is going through, I like them to win this game. Carson Wentz is back to playing like himself again. This game is a must win for both teams and I'll take the better coach and the better talent. I like Philly by a touchdown.

Sunday 1 EST/10 PST

Detroit Lions (2-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-5) [-2.5]

Tommy: Falcons (-2.5). This Lions team has a chance to sneak back into contention. This game will go a long way in deciding their season. Injuries to Trey Flowers and Frank Ragnow will be too much to overcome, which is why I'm (reluctantly) taking Atlanta. I love the over in this game as well since both QBs have something to prove.

Derrick: Lions (+2.5). Atlanta finally got one after a coaching switch up. Matt Ryan and Julio really showed they can still get it done. But the day after, both players were linked to trade rumors. I think this Falcons team is one loss away from tanking the season, and I think they lose on Sunday. I like the Lions +2.5.

Cleveland Browns (4-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-4-1) [+3]

Tommy: Bengals (+3). This is the third straight week I've been back and forth on the Browns. I think their running game will bounce back against Cincy, but Baker isn't healthy. I think Joe Burrow will be able to do enough throwing to the trio of AJ Green, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins to cover 3. Burrow is going to will his team to a victory after blowing one last week in Indy.

Derrick: Browns (-3). I like the Browns this week. They are coming off a huge loss to a division opponent who remains undefeated. I think the Browns have to win to try and keep pace with the Steelers and Ravens. Have to shoutout Burrow just because I think he gives the Bengals a chance, but I think the Browns win this one by a wider margin than the last time these teams met.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) @ Tennessee Titans (5-0) [-1]

Tommy: Steelers (+1). These teams will be adjusting on the fly after major injuries. Steelers lost starting MLB Devin Bush and Titans lost LT Taylor Lewan, both for the season. Both injuries expose the teams to the opponent's strength, so it should be an interesting game in Nashville. Someone has to lose, so I'll bet on that Steelers pass rush.

Derrick: Titans (-1). I think it’s finally time for the Steelers to lose. The Titans have been able to do whatever they want on offense since the beginning of the season. They have the more impressive wins, and I think they continue their undefeated streak this weekend.

Carolina Panthers (3-3) @ New Orleans Saints (3-2) [-7.5]

Tommy: Panthers (+7.5). The Saints have been dominate in October since 2016, but they only squeaked out a win against the Chargers in their last game before the bye. I think this Panthers offense is well-equipped to attack the Saints D, especially in a Teddy B revenge game. The Saints should FINALLY return Michael Thomas, but I think that could potentially hurt them here. Their focus should be running the ball with Kamara and Murray all over the Panthers front.

Derrick: Saints (-7.5). I really want to take Carolina, but the slant man is back this week. This Saints offense has clearly missed him. I think New Orleans shifts back into the team everyone thought they were to start the season and I think they win this game by double digits.

Buffalo Bills (4-2) @ New York Jets (0-6) [+13]

Tommy: Bills (-13). Formula, formula, formula. The Jets crucified me last week, which didn't shock me one bit. It solidified that I will be fading them the rest of the season. I also love the under 48 in this game, especially if Darnold sits out again. Josh Allen will get that Bills offense back rolling, and the Jets can only be described as hopeless.

Derrick: Bills (-13). Lines against the Jets are skyrocketing. Honestly, I think the Bills will win with the spread. This Jets team has clearly given up, they’re mediocre in every phase of the game. Bills need a redemption win, they’ll get it and win big.

Dallas Cowboys (2-4) @ Washington Football Team (1-5) [EVEN]

Tommy: Cowboys (EVEN). My confidence is low on both of these teams (and the entire conference). If anyone could compete with how bad the Jets looked last week, it would be Dallas. Washington also sucks and couldn't convert a game-winning 2 point conversion against NYG. I'll take the Cowboys because my coin landed on tails.

Derrick: Football Team (EVEN). The Dallas Cowboys reportedly think their head coach isn't good at his job. McCarthy has probably lost the locker room at this point. Andy Dalton was also disappointing, he was unable to get this offense in rhythm at any point against Arizona last week. Although I think this Washington team is pretty bad, I think the Cowboys are worse. I like Washington to get the win this week.

Green Bay Packers (4-1) @ Houston Texans (1-5) [+3.5]

Tommy: Packers (-3.5). I understand that the Packers got decimated last week, but this line is still generous. Aaron Rodgers still picks apart bad defenses. One of these teams is 4-1, the other is 1-5 with an interim head coach... I'll base this pick off that information.

Derrick: Packers (-3.5). The Packers looked horrible last weekend against the Bucs (#1 defense in the league). This week against the Texans, Rodgers has a way better matchup. I like the Pack to win against the spread.

Sunday 4:25 EST/1:25 PST

Seattle Seahawks (5-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-2) [+3.5]

Tommy: Seahawks (-3.5). The Cardinals defense stepped up without Chandler Jones against the Cowboys, but Russell Wilson ain't Andy Dalton. Seahawks are rested off the bye and will be looking to put a stranglehold on this division. This is another game where I love the over. Kyler and Russ should light up the scoreboard here.

Derrick: Seahawks (-3.5). Russ and the Seahawks had two weeks to prepare for this game. The Cardinals just played Monday night and will be right back in action on Sunday. Even after the Cardinals dominant win over the Cowboys, I like the Seahawks this week against the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) @ Denver Broncos (2-3) [+9.5]

Tommy: Chiefs (-9.5). Patrick Mahomes hasn't had a lights out performance since the Ravens game. I think he'll have one this week in Denver. The Chiefs also need to put some separation between them and their division foes (mainly Las Vegas). Denver is coming off an impressive win in New England, but Drew Lock threw 2 picks and they didn't score a TD.

Derrick: Broncos (+9.5). For some reason, I think the Broncos can keep up in this one. I’ve watched a few Chiefs games start to finish this year, and they are beatable. Broncos get Lock, Gordon, and Fant back for this one. Say what you want, I like the Broncos.

San Francisco 49ers (3-3) @ New England Patriots (2-3) [-2]

Tommy: Patriots (-2). 49ers took it to the Rams last week, but I think New England will do a better job at putting the game in Jimmy G's hands. Mostert is on IR, so that 49ers rushing attack won't be as dangerous. I think Cam Newton will make enough plays this week to win after struggling in his return against Denver. Both teams need wins to keep pace for a division title.

Derrick: Patriots (-2). This game is going to tell us a lot about these two teams. If the Patriots lose again this week, it’ll be an uphill battle for them the rest of the way. If the 49ers lose, they will most likely be fighting for a wildcard spot. I like the Patriots this week with the spread. I trust BB in the coaching matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) [-8]

Tommy: Chargers (-8). Listen, the Jaguars are going to cover again eventually. I just don't like this spot for them. Justin Herbert had two weeks to gain rhythm in that offense and prepare for a terrible Jacksonville defense. I expect the Chargers to put up a ton of points and cover this spread.

Derrick: Chargers (-8). Jacksonville isn’t ready. They look like the same exact team they were one year ago. I think even without Ekeler, this Chargers teams posts a ton of points and wins versus the spread.

Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) @ Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) [+3]

Tommy: Buccaneers (-3). This game is sneaky because I can envision Jon Gruden getting his guys up for this game. The Raiders are coming off a bye, and the Bucs are coming off an emotional win over Green Bay. I trust Tampa's defense to put pressure on Carr, so I'll lay the points with them.

Derrick: Buccaneers (-3). Tough game. You have to give the Raiders some credit after beating KC. I think we have to at least respect them until they show us otherwise. Still though, the Bucs held the Aaron Rodgers (highest QBR in the league) to just 10 points. I think Tom and the Bucs can grind this one out and win versus the spread.

Monday Night Football

Chicago Bears (5-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (4-2) [-6]

Tommy: Bears (+6). My Chicago Bears continue to get no respect from Vegas. That's fine with me, I love this line. I expect this game to be close and low scoring, like most Bears games. The last two games between these teams had totals of 21 and 24, so I love the under 46.5 almost as much as Bears +6. I'll take Chicago to cover and win the game outright.

Derrick: Bears (+6). Tough pick. I’m going to take Chicago, I like the wins they have far more than I like the wins the Rams have had so far. Rams are 4-0 against the NFC East, who cares? The Bears have some respectable wins this year, I think they find a way. I'm taking Chicago this week.

Tommy's Picks (55-36 ATS):

Eagles (-4.5) v Giants

Falcons (-2.5) v Lions

Bengals (+3) v Browns

Steelers (+1) @ Titans

Panthers (+7.5) @ Saints

Bills (-13) @ Jets

Cowboys (EVEN) @ Football Team

Packers (-3.5) @ Texans

Seahawks (-3.5) @ Cardinals

Chiefs (-9.5) @ Broncos

Patriots (-2) v 49ers

Chargers (-8) v Jaguars

Buccaneers (-3) @ Raiders

Bears (+6) @ Rams

Derricks Picks (48-43 ATS):

Eagles (-4.5) v Giants

Lions (+2.5) @ Falcons

Browns (-3) @ Bengals

Titans (-1) v Steelers

Saints (-7.5) v Panthers

Bills (-13) @ Jets

Football Team (EVEN) v Cowboys

Packers (-3.5) @ Texans

Seahawks (-3.5) @ Cardinals

Broncos (+9.5) v Chiefs

Patriots (-2) v 49ers

Chargers (-8) v Jaguars

Buccaneers (-3) @ Raiders

Bears (+6) @ Rams

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Week 7 Fantasy Football Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (Home v Jaguars)

Herbert continued his impressive rookie season in New Orleans but still hasn't gotten in the win column. I think that'll be motivation for him to come out firing against a weak Jacksonville secondary. Keenan Allen should be healthy and active for Herbert as well.

Derrick: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (Home v Giants)

Even through the injuries, Wentz has maintained fantasy relevance. He has also added some value as a rusher this season. Wentz will be without Sanders, Jeffery, Ertz, Goedart, and most of his starting offensive line tomorrow night. If you have a QB on a bye, I would think about picking him up on the waiver wire. This is a must-win game and historically, Wentz plays well with the pressure.

Running Backs

Tommy: Deandre Swift, Detroit Lions (Road @ Falcons)

The Falcons did a good job against Alexander Mattison last week, but the Vikings game plan was disastrous. The best way to attack Atlanta is to continue putting pressure on them downfield. I expect a lot of Swift both as a runner and check-down guy. I just hope the Lions don't take two steps back after a big win and big game for Swift last week.

Zach Moss, Buffalo Bills (Road @ Jets)

Okay... I know this seems like a REACH. But, the running back position is growing thinner and thinner due to bye weeks and injuries. A lot of people need a streamer, and only one guy in each league could pick up Boston Scott. Moss gets the Jets here in a game Buffalo should play from ahead. Devin Singletary hasn't been great this season, so I'm not expecting him to get bellcow volume. The Bills could be looking to give Moss some extra work, too, since he missed multiple weeks with injuries.

Derrick: Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers (Home v Jaguars)

Jackson looked for more ready for a workload than Kelley last week. With Ekeler sidelined for at least 2 more weeks, I would grab Jackson. He posted 14 last week and out touched Kelly. JJ faces the Jags this week and should be fired up if you have gaps at the RB or Flex position.

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (Road @ Saints)

Look... I know we all already knew to start Mike Davis, but I had to mention him because this may be the last time he touches the field in 2020. With McCaffrey set to return next weekend, It’ll be time to part ways with the fantasy stud. (Stash him if you have room, you never know). THANK YOU FOR EVERYTHING MIKE DAVIS!

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Travis Fulgham, Philadelphia Eagles (Home v Giants)

Fulgham has been Wentz best target as of late and remains healthy which is the biggest obstacle if you're an Eagles pass catcher. He gets a great matchup against New York, and the return of Desean Jackson should give him room to work that secondary. He'll need to come through in a do-or-die week for Philly.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (Road @ Saints)

Maybe you are already planning on starting Anderson, but in case you aren't, I'm here to change that. Anderson didn't have his best day against Chicago, but no receiver is going to. Robby still was Bridgewater's first look all afternoon, and Teddy B will be looking for him Sunday. I'm predicting a big play TD from that connection.

Derrick: Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (Home v Cowboys)

Yup…. he's playing Dallas. Fire him up.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (Home v Browns)

Boyd historically goes off against the Browns. With some A.J. green trade rumors heating up, I think Boyd will prove this week that the Bengals will be just fine without Green. Not to mention, this Browns secondary is pretty mediocre.

Tight End

Tommy: Darren Fells, Houston Texans (Home v Packers)

Fells is coming off a huge 6-85-1 line against the Titans. The Packers just let Gronkowski look elite again. I love this matchup from both sides. Alexander should limit either Cooks or Fuller V on the afternoon, so Fells should see high TE volume and red zone looks.

Derrick: Richard Rodgers, Philadelphia Eagles (Home v Giants)

This position has been a headache all year. If you need someone off the waiver wire, consider Richard Rodgers. Rodgers will most likely be TE1 on Thursday against the Giants. Wentz has to throw to somebody other than Fulgham, I think Rodgers will get some looks.

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (Home v Bears)

The Bears defense has been the best all season against opposing quarterbacks. I don't like Goff's upside this week at all. There are streaming options out there with a similar floor and much higher ceiling (Stafford, Herbert, Wentz, Bridgewater).

Derrick: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (Home v Bears)

I think this will be a low scoring defensive battle. So far Goff has shown a pattern: he puts up big games on bad defenses and has a consistent floor around 15-18 when he faces a good defense. I think the Bears are a good defense and this week they hold him under 20.

Running Backs

Tommy: Devonta Freeman, New York Giants (Road @ Eagles)

I fully expect Philadelphia to put the game in the hands of Daniel Jones on Thursday night. Philly's front 7 might be the bright spot of the NFC East, even if they have been giving up points early on in the season. If the Giants want to have success, they'll have to attack the Eagles in coverage.

Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs (Road @ Broncos)

Bell is expected to make his Chiefs debut against the Broncos, but I expect him to receive limited action if he does end up active. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is coming off a monster game, so he should still lead the backfield with ease. I don't think a dud performance here matters much toward Le'Veon's future value.

Derrick: Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos (Home v Chiefs)

Gordon is back, and Lindsay only played about 70% of the snaps while he was gone. His opportunities will be less than half and he is any easy sit/drop candidate.

Le'Veon Bell, Kansas City Chiefs (Road @ Broncos)

This will be his first week with KC and it’ll be tough to get comfortable in Andy Reid’s offense in one week. I think if you are a Bell owner you need to sit him this week and maybe next week to see how much he is actually involved. Don't start him but don't drop him.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (Home v 49ers)

Edelman hasn't done much this season, but he still remains the primary focus of opposing secondaries. The 49ers just did a great job shutting down Cooper Kupp, and Edelman's role is very similar. This game is one of few in which I like the under.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (Road @ Football Team)

Trying to predict Cowboys wideouts is a dangerous game, but Gallup's role should see the biggest dip in production over Dak's absence. Washington is going to bring a ton of pressure, so I'd expect intermediate routes to be more effective for Dallas. There isn't enough production for Cooper, Lamb and Gallup anymore without Prescott.

Derrick: AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals (Home v Browns)

AJ finally put up some points last week, he ended with 17. 17 is Green’s season high, and I don't know if he can get back to that number. After the recent trade rumors, I just don't like having him in my lineup. I would sit him.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (Road @ Football Team)

Lamb has maybe the brightest future of any rookie receiver. He can do it all, no question. The problem is, Dalton won't have enough time to get him the ball. Cowboys face one of the best pass rush groups in the league on Sunday and their offensive line is depleted. I think they struggle too much in the pass game this week.

Tight End

Tommy: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (Home v Panthers)

Michael Thomas' return will hurt the value of all other Saints pass catchers. I think Cook is very TD dependent this week, and Sean Payton values Taysom Hill is the red zone over traditional offense.

Derrick: Any TE besides Kelce, Kittle, Waller

The other two most consistent tight ends are Hockenson and Hunter Henry. At this point, you should be looking at who the defense is more than the actual tight end. Some lesser TE’s who have good matchups this week include: Logan Thomas, Evan Engram, and Dalton Shultz. Good luck.