Week 10 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (6-2) [-1]

Tommy: Colts (+1). I think Indy pulls off the upset on the road. Both teams will look to run the football. I trust Indy's defense more than Tennessee's, and the Titans offense just hasn't looked as explosive as of late.

Derrick: Titans (-1). I like Tennessee here. I just think they have a much better offensive unit. When it comes down to it, Tennessee has had better wins against tougher opponents than the Colts. I like Titans in a defensive battle.

Sunday Noon Games

Houston Texans (2-6) @ Cleveland Browns (5-3) [-3]

Tommy: Browns (-3). Love the Browns in this spot. The Texans the 1-7 against the spread this year, the Browns are coming off a bye, Nick Chubb is probably returning off IR... all these things add up to a Browns cover. I will throw in that I love the over 49 here as well.

Derrick: Browns (-3). Run run run run. Chubb is back at practice this week and will take on one of the worst defenses in the league. He and Kareem Hunt are going to have a field day. I think the Browns are the more stable and established team so far and should be able to pull of the spread.

Washington Football Team (2-6) @ Detroit Lions (3-5) [-4]

Tommy: Lions (-4). Pretty easy to fade NFC East teams playing outside of the NFC East. The Lions should have enough to handle a Washington team that's on their 3rd starting QB. Whoever loses this game is the real winner, both of these teams should be vying for draft position now.

Derrick: Football Team (+4). Both of these teams are mid. I think Washington can actually win this game though. They will have a solidified vet managing the game and we all know about their pass rush. I think this one is close and I think Washington will cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) @ Green Bay Packers (6-2) [-13.5]

Tommy: Jaguars (+13.5). This line is too fat. I have no doubts that the Packers will win this game, but the Jaguars have been battling this year. They have the run game to keep the Packers offense off the field. A big James Robinson day helps the Jags cover in Lambeau.

Derrick: Jaguars (+13.5). This is a huge spread I’m willing to take a chance on. The rookie Jake Luton added a little fire to this Jags offense. He put up over 300 yards and 2 TDs last week in a 27-25 loss to Houston. We all know where Green Bay ranks in the NFC, but the Jags have a chance to keep it within two scores.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) @ New York Giants (2-7) [+3.5]

Tommy: Giants (+3.5). This two teams played a very close game just a few weeks ago, a game New York would've won if not for an Evan Engram drop. The Giants have looked even better their last two times out. I'll take them with the points at home.

Derrick: Eagles (-3.5). The Eagles are almost at full health for the first time this season. This could mean better play from Wentz as he now has 4/5 projected starting lineman back and all of his receivers except Desean Jackson. I think this is set up to be a game where Philly puts it together. I like them with the spread.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) @ Carolina Panthers (3-6) [+5.5]

Tommy: Panthers (+5.5). The Buccaneers proved last Sunday night that they have the widest range of outcomes for any team in the league. They've looked like the most complete team in the NFC but they've also showed shades of the undisciplined team we've been accustomed to seeing from Tampa. I like the Panthers to cover at home after a string of tough losses.

Derrick: Buccaneers (-5.5). Ok Bucs, let's pick it up. Last week, the Bucs were blown out on national TV and the week before they struggled to beat the Giants. I would like to think Tom Brady and company are ready to bounce back. Even though I like the progression of the Panthers this year, I'm still going with TB12.

Sunday Afternoon Games

Denver Broncos (3-5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-3) [-5]

Tommy: Broncos (+5). These AFC West battles have provided some entertaining shootouts and we could see another one here. These teams feel like they are pretty similar at full health. I'll take the points with Denver because I think the law of averages comes to play with these teams.

Derrick: Raiders (-5). Raiders have been sneaky good this year. This team just seems to finish games this season. They are still the only team to beat KC this year and they have a good group of young talent around Derek Carr. I like them to win in this divisional game at home, I think this one is a shootout.

Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) @ Miami Dolphins (5-3) [-2.5]

Tommy: Dolphins (-2.5). The Dolphins are a good football team. They will beat another bad football team at home this Sunday. Everyone is expecting Tua to struggle and cost Miami a game, but I'm expecting a breakout performance and a 3-0 start to his career.

Derrick: Chargers (+2.5). This’ll be an interesting game for two Rookie quarterbacks. I’m picking the Chargers to cover because I think Herbert is leaps and bounds better than Tua. I think the Chargers find a way to put points on this strong Miami defense and Tua struggles.

Buffalo Bills (7-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-3) [EVEN]

Tommy: Bills. Nobody in the NFL is feeling better about themselves than Buffalo. After finally upending the Patriots, they delivered a statement against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. The defense finally made some plays and Josh Allen continues to use his arm and legs to sustain drives with relative ease.

Derrick: Bills. Josh Allen and company have finally gotten it going on offense. After a huge win against Seattle, the confidence of this team should skyrocket. I like the Bills against an iffy 5-3 Cardinals team.

Seattle Seahawks (6-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (5-3) [-1.5]

Tommy: Rams (-1.5). McVay has had two weeks to put a game plan together for the NFL's worst defense. The Rams should be healthy, rested and ready to win a game with first place on the line. Jalen Ramsey against DK Metcalf could be the CB-WR matchup of the season.

Derrick: Seahawks (+1.5). The Los Angeles Rams have had one of the most consistent defenses in the league so far. This week they will be put to the test of Russell Wilson and his arsenal of weapons. I’m taking Seattle because I don’t think this offense can be stopped, even after the loss to the Bills last week. I think this team will bounce back.

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) @ New Orleans Saints (6-2) [-9.5]

Tommy: Saints (-9.5). I think the 49ers are going backwards. They allowed Aaron Rodgers to play pitch and catch with Davante Adams last week. Drew Brees will dice them up just as easily. Take the Saints at home.

Derrick: Saints (-9.5). After watching the Saints blow out the Buccaneers on national television, I have a lot more confidence betting on them. They gained their star receiver Michael Thomas back and looked more like the team we thought they’d be. The 49ers are still struggling. I like the Saints with the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0) [-7.5]

Tommy: Bengals (+7.5). The Bengals cover football games. It's what they do. Joey Burrow has had two weeks to prep for this great Steelers defense. Expect another 300+ yard performance out of the kid, helping the Bengals cover AGAIN in a loss. Unprecedented.

Derrick: Steelers (-7.5). The Cincinnati Bengals have shown they can compete rather than just lose every game like years in the past. They have undoubtedly gotten better, but I don’t think it will be enough to compete with this undefeated Pittsburgh team. I like the Steelers with the spread.

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) @ New England Patriots (3-5) [+7]

Tommy: Ravens (-7). I know this number is going to push up to 9/10 by game day, and I'm surprised that it hasn't started to already. The Ravens offense hasn't looked to form lately, but they've been going up against really stout defenses. They'll get back on track against a middling Pats squad.

Derrick: Ravens (-7). The Patriots just haven’t been playing well enough for me to pick them. On Monday night, the Patriots were one play away from overtime with the 0-8 New York Jets. They face a much tougher opponent in the Baltimore Ravens, and I don’t think Cam and company can keep this close. Give me Baltimore.

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago Bears (5-4) [+2.5]

Tommy: Bears (+2.5). Chicago is looking to avoid 4-game losing streaks in consecutive seasons. Luckily, they get to play Kirk Cousins on MNF. That's a money spot. I think the Bears grab a huge home win before their bye.

Derrick: Vikings (-2.5). I said it last week and I’ll say it again this week, I refuse to pick the Chicago Bears until they establish an offense. I think the Bears offense will stall again and the Vikings will be able to establish a run game and win by more than 3.

Tommy's Picks (75-55-2 ATS):

Colts (+1) @ Titans

Browns (-3) v Texans

Lions (-4) v Football Team

Jaguars (+13.5) @ Packers

Giants (+3.5) v Eagles

Panthers (+5.5) v Buccaneers

Broncos (+5) @ Raiders

Dolphins (-2.5) v Chargers

Bills @ Cardinals

Rams (-1.5) v Seahawks

Saints (-9.5) v 49ers

Bengals (+7.5) @ Steelers

Ravens (-7) @ Patriots

Bears (+2.5) v Vikings

Derrick's Picks (63-67-2 ATS):

Titans (-1) v Colts

Browns (-3) v Texans

Football Team (+4) @ Lions

Jaguars (+13.5) @ Packers

Eagles (-3.5) @ Giants

Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Panthers

Raiders (-5) v Broncos

Chargers (+2.5) @ Dolphins

Bills @ Cardinals

Seahawks (+1.5) @ Rams

Saints (-9.5) v 49ers

Steelers (-7.5) v Bengals

Ravens (-7) @ Patriots

Vikings (-2.5) @ Bears

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NFL Week 10 Fantasy Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (Home v Seahawks)

Home game, off a bye, against the worst defense in the league. Goff should easily dice up the Seahawks secondary. Expect a top 10 week out of him, could be top 5.

Derrick: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (Road @ Giants)

Carson Wentz has 8 weeks to prove he still deserves to be the starting quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles. He now is left with no excuses because he has 9 out of 11 of his projected starters. Last time Wentz played the Giants he put up 34.3 fantasy points. Start him.

Running Backs

Tommy: Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (Road @ Lions)

Gibson is primed to have a breakout game against the league's worst rushing defense. Washington has been looking to get Gibson the ball. If he can break some big plays early and keep JD McKissic off the field, he could turn in a top 10 week at the position.

Deandre Swift, Detroit Lions (Home v Football Team)

In the same game, I love Swift. I imagine there might be heavy Adrian Peterson early in a revenge game, but Swift has been playing well and earning more touches. The Washington pass rush should force a lot of check downs.

Derrick: Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (Road @ Browns)

With David Johnson sidelined, Duke becomes an instant streaming option. If you are short-staffed at running back, Duke should be considered. He had 16 attempts and 16 points last week. Start him.

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (Home v Buccaneers)

He’s back. CMC is gone. If he’s on the waiver wire, get him immediately. He is an automatic plug in RB1 as he was the workhorse while CMC was gone. He is a must start unless you have a couple top 5 guys.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (Home v Bengals)

Claypool just seems to lead Pittsburgh in targets week after week. It hasn't turned into the breakout production, but it's given him a very high floor. He's looking more and more like a must-start WR2.

Devante Parker, Miami Dolphins (Home v Chargers)

Parker is going to need to step up as Preston Williams just got put on the IR. Tua will need a go-to guy as he eases into the league. I expect Parker to get WR1 volume this week and it wouldn't surprise me if he puts up a top 10 performance.

Derrick: Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers (Home v Buccaneers)

Curtis has posted 17-21-26 in his last three games. He seems to be an up and coming favorite for Teddy Bridgewater. He is someone to consider picking up especially if you have problems at the wide receiver position. His matchup isn’t great, but overall I like his upside going forward. Consider him and start him if your wide receivers are weak.

Travis Fulgham, Philadelphia Eagles (Road @ Giants)

Travis Fulgham saw a team high 11 targets against the New York Giants in week 7. Even though the Eagles are getting Alshon Jeffery back this week, I don’t think it will mess with his production. I think Fulgham is a must start going forward. Start him.

Tight End

Tommy: Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts (Road @ Titans)

Burton hasn't done a whole lot since his 2 TD game weeks ago, but he's the only tight end not banged up for the Colts right now. The Titans defense is vulnerable and Phillip Rivers loves throwing to his tight ends. I like Burton gets you low double digits here.

Derrick: Evan Engram, New York Giants (Home v Eagles)

Evan is starting to become one of the more consistent tight ends in the league. He’s had 10-12-15 in his last three games and this is pretty good considering unpredictable tight end play this year. I would start him.

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Road @ Panthers)

I'm expecting a heavy dose of the run for Tampa this Sunday. Bruce Arians talked about wanting to run the ball more, Tom Brady looks like he should be throwing about half as much as he is, and Carolina just so happens to have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. I don't think Brady throws for 300 on the road here.

Derrick: Cam Newton, New England Patriots (Home v Ravens)

Cam makes my hate list this week. He had a good fantasy performance last week….. against the Jets. Cam is running low on weapons and he faces a Ravens defense who gets Marlon Humphrey back this week. I don’t see him having a good game. Sit him.

Running Backs

Tommy: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (Road @ Cardinals)

Singletary is third in line for a carry in Buffalo and hasn't been dynamic in the pass game. He can't pass protect and will continue getting fazed out of the game plan in favor of Zach Moss if he doesn't improve his play quickly.

David Montgomery/David Johnson (Questionables)

As it sits right now (Thursday morning), both of these players are questionable and in concussion protocol. I'm telling you now to find someone else to put in your lineup. Even if one of both of these players play, they're in for a rough day. Go find another answer.

Derrick: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (Home v Texans)

Nick Chubb is back, Kareem is still a flex option but lower expectations. His time on top is probably over. Check the status of Chubb, but all signs pointing to his return so far.

Devonta Freeman, New York Giants (Home v Eagles)

Freeman is coming off an injury and faces a stingy run defense in Philly. He will see some volume but hasn't had any fantasy relevance since week 5. Stay away. Seek other options.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (Home v Buccaneers)

Moore has been disappointing but has managed to squeak out some respectable weeks in fantasy. I don't see luck going his way this week. I would shop him around if you have someone in your league desperate for a receiver. Once Cmac is back full time, Moore won't do much of anything for this offense.

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (Road @ Bears)

I actually think Justin Jefferson has a better chance at putting up numbers for Minnesota on Monday night. Thielen is likely to draw Kyle Fuller's coverage and this Bears defense is very familiar with him. I think the pass rush bothers Kirk Cousins all night and he does most of his damage in the screen game.

Derrick: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (Road @ Bears)

Jefferson really popped off in weeks 3-6 but has been quiet since. He will face the toughest defense he's seen all season and probably won't see too much volume. I would sit Jefferson this week.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants (Home v Eagles)

Darius Slay > Darius Slayton. The last time these two faced each other, Slay limited Slayton to 2 catches for 23 yards. I would be steer clear and make a move on the waiver wire if you use Slayton as a starter.

Tight End

Tommy: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (Home v Jaguars)

I just wanted to apologize for the Tonyan start in last week's column. It was an absolutely brutal performance on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers didn't look for any secondary weapons because the 49ers left Davante Adams open all night. Tonyan is barely getting targets, find another TE.

Derrick: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (Road @ Patriots)

Never thought I’d be putting him on a sit list in 2020, but here we are. In his last 3 games he has managed to get a total of 15 points. He faces the best defense against tight ends this year, I think the Ravens will work other weapons. Sit him.