Week 9 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

Another tough week of picks as only 4 favorites covered in week 8. I went 6-8 and Derrick went 5-9, taking our overall records that much closer to .500. This week is all about getting out of the red. I feel great about our chances with this board.

Thursday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (5-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-4) [+5.5]

Tommy: Packers (-5.5). There is so much uncertainty for both teams ahead of this matchup on top of the game happening on a short (election) week. I'll take Rodgers off the loss. I imagine he has revenge on his mind after the Packers got embarrassed in the NFC championship game in San Francisco.

Derrick: Packers (-5.5). I liked Green Bay before the devastating injuries to Jimmy G & Kittle. Without them, I don’t see the Niners keeping pace with the Pack on Thursday night. Give me GB with the spread.

Sunday Noon Games

Denver Broncos (3-4) @ Atlanta Falcons (2-6) [-4]

Tommy: Broncos (+4). The Broncos have been showing life lately. Their comeback against the Chargers ended in a buzzer beater TD and was extremely fun to watch. They have more to play for and will cover this number. Expect another big game out of Julio Jones, though.

Derrick: Broncos (+4). I feel like I’m one of the only people who believes in Drew Lock. I think the weapons around him are good and I think he can manage games. I like the Broncos this week because they are healthy, and the Falcons seem to just hand games away.

Seattle Seahawks (6-1) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2) [+3]

Tommy: Seahawks (-3). This would be a huge win for the Bills that could provide Josh Allen with a much needed confidence boost. Buffalo is going to play this game trying to prove that it is a contender; Seattle won't have that kind of incentive. I think both QBs ball out, but I'll take the home team in this one.

Derrick: Seahawks (-3). I just haven’t been impressed with the Bills their last few games. Not being able to score a touchdown against a Jets defense who hasn’t stopped anyone all year combined with the fact that they barely beat the worst Patriots team in the last decade is too much for me. I like Seattle -3.

Chicago Bears (5-3) @ Tennessee Titans (5-2) [-5.5]

Tommy: Titans (-5.5). The Bears have a chance to pick up a giant win ahead of another MNF appearance next week, but it's a terrible matchup for them. The Titans are coming off back-to-back losses and are looking to get back to their winning ways. The Bears injured offensive line will not stand a chance, so the Bears won't be able to attack Tennessee's defensive weaknesses.

Derrick: Titans (-5.5). Same shit different week. The Bears refuse to have an offense. IMO it’s a combination of play calling and bad offensive line play. This Bears defense deserves better. I refuse to pick them against a good opponent until they find some rhythm.

Baltimore Ravens (5-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (5-2) [+2.5]

Tommy: Ravens (-2.5). I love the Ravens in this spot. They could be without a handful of defensive pieces Sunday but should still have enough on that side to get after Phil Rivers and force him into mistakes. The offense lost their star LT Ronnie Stanley and has been struggling, but they're simply too good to hold down. All 3 phases contribute to a Baltimore victory.

Derrick: Ravens (-2.5). Phillip Rivers against this Ravens defense is not a matchup I’m excited about at all. The Ravens are coming off a tough loss, and I think they bounce back this week and beat the spread.

Carolina Panthers (3-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-1) [-11]

Tommy: Panthers (+11). Carolina has been putting up fights all season. With CMac set to return, I like them to play the Chiefs tough. Kansas City was on cruise control last week against the Jets. They know they won't need to play their best until January and February. Panthers cover and could put a scare into Kansas City.

Derrick: Chiefs (-11). The Panthers are by no means any easy win, but KC has proven to be that good. Even with the return of McCaffrey, I like the Chiefs with the spread.

Detroit Lions (3-4) @ Minnesota Vikings (2-5) [-4]

Tommy: Lions (+4). A lot of people will roll with Dalvin Cook and the Vikings here. I'm not going to expect repeat performances out of subpar football teams. The Lions typically stagger their good games, so I'll take them off the bad loss.

Derrick: Vikings (-4). I like the Vikings to win with Matthew Stafford going on the Covid-19 reserve list. I don’t like the Lions at all without their starter so give me Minnesota.

New York Giants (1-7) @ Washington Football Team (2-5) [-3]

Tommy: Football Team (-3). Washington seems to play the end of these games very strategically against their division foes which kind of scares me. If these teams stay close, Washington could "happen to lose" another tight one. But I like Washington to control the pace throughout in a home game off the bye. The Football Team is my favorite out of the NFC Least.

Derrick: Giants (+3). The Giants showed last week that they can stay in the game against good opponents. This could be the boost of confidence they needed to finally get it going. This is also the NFC East, so it would only be right that these teams play within a field goal of one another for a second time.

Houston Texans (1-6) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) [+7]

Tommy: Texans (-7). The Jaguars will be starting a 6th round rookie QB in this game. I don't expect them to get to 20 points. Against a terrible Jaguars defense, Deshaun Watson will score enough to cover a touchdown. I also love the under 51.5 for this game.

Derrick: Texans (-7). Another team playing without their starting QB, no Minshew this week. Jake Lutton will open up as the starter for the Jags, and I would never bet on QB I’ve never seen play before.

Sunday Afternoon Games

Las Vegas Raiders (4-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-5) [-1.5]

Tommy: Raiders (+1.5). Vegas continues to give their own Raiders no love. The Chargers have been building up leads, but their habit of losing those leads now seems like a full blown addiction. The Raiders need a win and the Chargers are probably better off with the loss.

Derrick: Chargers (-1.5). The line is this close for a reason. This game is really a coin flip. Both teams have shown flashes despite the average records. I like Herbert and his weapons to outscore the Raiders this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-6) [+14]

Tommy: Steelers (-14). Last week we had #1 vs #32. What better follow up than #2 vs #31. This game will be a slaughter. The Cowboys are a mess and will probably start a practice squad QB. The Steelers aren't complacent with their 7-0 record. Pittsburgh wins big.

Derrick: Steelers (-14). Tank season. The Cowboys have moved on from a few vets recently and are going with the younger players for the rest of the season. This week, you will see another new QB for the cowboys and I refuse to pick teams with first time QBs. Steelers stay undefeated and win big.

Miami Dolphins (4-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-2) [-4.5]

Tommy: Dolphins (+4.5). The Dolphins have played 3 very solid games against NFC West foes. I expect them to have another good showing in Arizona. Tua didn't get much going in his first start and they have an injured backfield, but that defense looks more and more impressive each week.

Derrick: Cardinals (-4.5). Dolphins upset LA last weekend without any help from their offense. Tua looks underwhelming and was forced to punt on the last 9 drives of the game for the Dolphins. I don’t think this offense will be able to outscore Kyler.

Sunday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (5-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) [-5.5]

Tommy: Saints (+5.5). I think this game will be close. Neither team will want to lose and big plays will be made. This one will almost certainly come down to 4th quarter play, so I'll take the plus points. Two of the best in the game could be returning in Michael Thomas and Antonio Brown.

Derrick: Saints (+5.5). Is this the week the Saints finally get MT back? Whenever it is, they will have a huge boost to their offense. I like them to win especially if the Bucs play like they did against the Giants. The return of AB is something I considered, but I have to see how he looks in his return.

Monday Night Football

New England Patriots (2-5) @ New York Jets (0-8) [+7]

Tommy: Patriots (-7). Belichick laid into his players after their last game against the Bills. Expect them to come out with fire and defeat the Jets handily. Bill is not going to be embarrassed on National television against the worst team in the league.

Derrick: Patriots (-7). Cam has to win this game or he will be benched for the season. He looked a little better against the Bills but cost his team the game with the late red zone fumble. I think he does enough, and Bill will coach circles around Adam Gase.

Tommy's Picks (67-51-1 ATS):

Packers (-5.5) @ 49ers

Broncos (+4) @ Falcons

Bills (+3) v Seahawks

Titans (-5.5) v Bears

Ravens (-2.5) @ Colts

Panthers (+11) @ Chiefs

Lions (+4) @ Vikings

Football Team (-3) v Giants

Texans (-7) @ Jaguars

Raiders (+1.5) @ Chargers

Steelers (-14) @ Cowboys

Dolphins (+4.5) @ Cardinals

Saints (+5.5) @ Buccaneers

Patriots (-7) @ Jets

Derrick's Picks (58-57-1 ATS):

Packers (-5.5) @ 49ers

Broncos (+4) @ Falcons

Seahawks (-3) @ Bills

Titans (-5.5) v Bears

Ravens (-2.5) @ Colts

Chiefs (-11) v Panthers

Vikings (-4) v Lions

Giants (+3) @ Football Team

Texans (-7) @ Jaguars

Chargers (-1.5) v Raiders

Steelers (-14) @ Cowboys

Cardinals (-4.5) v Dolphins

Saints (+5.5) @ Buccaneers

Patriots (-7) @ Jets

---

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Cam Newton, New England Patriots (Road @ Jets)

Cam hasn't thrown a TD since getting Covid. Look for that to change against the Jets. Newton also remains the Patriots' most trustworthy option in goal-to-go situations. He could very well be playing for his starting spot Monday night.

Derrick: Drew Lock, Denver Broncos (Road @ Falcons)

I’ve been high on Drew Lock and he hasn’t played lights out, but I’m not giving up on him yet. He has a good matchup against this terrible Falcons secondary and should be a streaming option if you have a questionable QB.

Running Backs

Tommy: Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (Home v Dolphins)

Edmonds gets a tough draw against the Dolphins, but his volume should make him a must start especially in PPR formats. As long as Drake it out, Edmonds should carry the bulk of the rushing work for Arizona.

JaMycal Hasty, San Francisco 49ers (Home v Packers)

Hasty might be the only 49ers skill player left by the time kickoff rolls around. Shanahan absolutely embarrassed the Packers twice last year with his rushing scheme, and the Packers proved last week that they have yet to fix those issues.

Derrick: James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (Home v Texans)

Robinson will be without his starting QB and should see more volume this week. He’s playing against a Houston defense who is the 2nd worst in giving up the run. Fire him up.

Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers (Home v Raiders)

Jackson has been the most valuable playing in the Chargers backfield since Ekeler went down. He has a great matchup against Las Vegas who gives up the 5th most fantasy points against the run.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (Road @ Falcons)

Jeudy is no stranger to Mercedes-Benz Stadium as he won a National title there with Alabama in 2017. I expect him to finally emerge as the clear #1 option for this Broncos passing attack on Sunday. He could be looking at a true breakout game.

Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills (Home v Seahawks)

Beasley has been his typical self this season. Never too high, never too low. He's become a consistent target for Josh Allen, and I expect Allen to need him on Sunday. This game should be high scoring and the Bills will need to throw often.

Derrick: Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (Road @ Titans)

I think Mooney is a WR3 with upside. He is becoming one of Foles favorite targets. With Wims out with a two game suspension, look for his volume to pick up.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (Road @ Cowboys)

Claypool has seen over 10 targets in each of his last three games. He faces Dallas and we all know how that secondary goes (except against Wentz). He should put up some big points against that weak secondary.

Tight End

Tommy: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (Road @ 49ers)

Tonyan didn't emerge as the TE1 option some thought he would after the Packers' bye, but he's still one of Rodgers' most trustworthy targets at the moment. The Green Bay backfield is utterly depleted, so Tonyan's volume should rise with more intermediate/dump off work.

Derrick: Evan Engram, New York Giants (Road @ Football Team)

Engram is finally starting to see some targets after a weak fantasy start. This could be huge for Engram owners, he was a top 5 tight end off the board. I think he’s a must start this week against the Football Team.

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (Home v Bears)

Okay, I know that last week I went on my "Tannehill is a QB1" rant. If you must play him, that's fine. His floor is solidified. But I expect him to have a "floor" type game against this solid Bears D.

Derrick: Phillip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts (Home v Ravens)

Rivers against Baltimore is not even a streaming option, most fantasy footballers should already know that. But if your QB is on a bye this week seek other options.

Running Backs

Tommy: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (Home v Ravens)

Taylor could miss the game Sunday, making this a moot point. Even if they let him dress, he's losing rushing work to Jordan Wilkins and passing work to Nyhiem Hines. It seems like Indy is playing the slow game with this one.

Ronald Jones Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home v Saints)

Jones Jr.'s fumble against the Giants really changed the landscape of that Bucs offense Monday night. It was clear that Leonard Fournette was the trustworthy back for the rest of the contest. RoJo is going to have to win his spot back, but the opportunity may not present itself in such a big matchup.

Derrick: Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers (Home v Raiders)

When Ekeler went down, Kelley was a top waiver wire target. Don’t be fooled, he was out touched by Jackson and Pope last week. Fade him at all costs.

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (Home v Seahawks)

Last week it was the Zach Moss show and Buffalo finally had a running game other than Josh Allen. The odd man out seems to be Singletary, I would fade this week.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions (Road @ Vikings)

Marvin Jones Jr. isn't the guy to boom when you expect it. When Golladay was out at the beginning of the season, everyone expected Jones Jr. to be that guy and he wasn't. He still won't be this week.

Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (Home v Dolphins)

Kirk had himself a couple BOOM games before the bye week, but that was against Dallas and Seattle. He isn't facing a swinging door secondary this week, so I wouldn't expect the big play TDs. His volume hasn't hit a floor I'm comfortable with.

Derrick: Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens (Road @ Colts)

Brown has been complaining about not seeing enough targets this year. This could continue after this week's game against the Colts, who have the second best secondary in the league.

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans (Home v Bears)

Davis has been a great option all year, but I don’t trust him against this Bears secondary. I think Tennessee’s offense really sticks with the run in the game and I don’t see his volume being what it usually is.

Tight End

Tommy: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans (Home v Bears)

Jonnu hasn't recaptured TE1 targets since injuring his ankle in week 6. He is losing a lot of work to fellow TE Anthony Firkser and WR Corey Davis. I wouldn't drop Jonnu with the TE market being what it is, but I would try to find a better option for this week.

Derrick: Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (Home v Steelers)

Schultz was a good option while Dak was still around. I don’t like his value with a new yet another new QB under center. Fade him at all costs.