Week 11 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

Thursday Night Football

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (6-3) [-3]

Tommy: Seahawks (-3). The Cardinals outplayed and beat the Seahawks just four weeks ago, and Seattle has lost their last two games with Russell Wilson combining for 7 turnovers in those contests. Arizona had an emotional win last week. I think both teams score a lot, but Seattle turns it around on the short week.

Derrick: Cardinals (+3). I like Arizona as the underdog this week. They have shown they can win big games in back to back weeks. Russell Wilson and company will have to makeup for whatever the Seattle defense gives up. It’ll be tough against an offense like Arizona’s. I like the Cardinals.

Sunday Noon Games

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) @ Cleveland Browns (6-3) [-3.5]

Tommy: Browns (-3.5). No reason to pick the Eagles here. With the way Myles Garrett and the Browns get after QBs, I have no faith in Carson Wentz pulling out a victory on the road. Cleveland will be right back in the mix as a serious contender if they can keep the rushing attack as is behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Derrick: Browns (-3.5). The Eagles are in shambles after losing to the Giants. I just can't see the Eagles being a competitive team. They struggle in all phases and Pederson may have lost the locker room at this point. Cleveland has Chubb back and they will run run run and chew the clock out. Give me Cleveland.

Atlanta Falcons (3-6) @ New Orleans Saints (7-2) [-5]

Tommy: Falcons (+5). I'm going to take Atlanta here for the first time since (I believe) week 3. I just smell a whole lot of cap coming out of New Orleans. They've stepped up as of late, but without Drew Brees they should really struggle. Michael Thomas doesn't look like himself and they need him now more than ever. Atlanta covers but blows another late lead.

Derrick: Falcons (+5). I like this pick because Jameis is still Jameis. A division battle, no Brees, and the Falcons get a little healthier with the return of Calvin Ridley. Jameis threw what should’ve been a pick last week and threw for under 100 yards in Brees' absence. I don't think he can lead them like Bridgewater did. I like the Falcons

Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) @ Washington Football Team (2-7) [-1.5]

Tommy: Bengals (+1.5). I love the Bengals so much in this spot that I almost faded the pick. I believe Joe Burrow will have a bounce back week and be determined to get in the win column against a lowly Washington squad. Alex Smith's story is inspiring, but dinking and dunking isn't going to win you football games with the roster they have.

Derrick: Bengals (+1.5). I think Cincinnati will win this game outright. They have impressed me way more than the Football Team so far and are 6-3 ATS. Joe Burrow and his weapons should be able to outscore this offense, even with long shot Alex Smith back under center.

Detroit Lions (4-5) @ Carolina Panthers (3-7) [-1.5]

Tommy: Panthers (-1.5). I'm assuming the Lions will be favored here once the news breaks that Teddy Bridgewater will miss the game. I still think Panthers have a chance to win the game by keeping things simple. The Lions are starting to put things together a little bit which is exactly why I'll fade them here.

Derrick: Lions (+1.5). I have no choice but to take the Lions here. Teddy bridgewater and CMC will be out. I cant trust detroit to win with their backup (i dont even know who he is??) For that simple reason I am taking detroit.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) [+10]

Tommy: Steelers (-10). I think the gap between these two teams is so large that I'll lay the double digit line. The Jags played a great game off the bye against Green Bay, but they won't have the extra week of prep. Big Ben is starting to sling it out to all his weapons and should have the matchups he needs to hit this cover.

Derrick: Steelers (-10). Pittsburg is 7-2 ATS. We all know how well Pittsburgh has played this season. Even though it's been a weak schedule, it's hard to win Sunday to Sunday in the NFL. I think Pittsburgh's defense rattles this offense early and often and the Steelers cover.

Tennessee Titans (6-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3) [-6.5]

Tommy: Titans (+6.5). I really don't understand the line on this game. The Ravens have noticeably struggled with their offense this season, and we're to the point where you can't just expect everything to click at once. The Titans dominated the Ravens last postseason by running the ball and stopping the run. I expect a similar performance on Sunday.

Derrick: Titans (+6.5). Ahhhhh this pick is tough, both teams have shown great flashes and ugly flashes so far this season. Baltimore has a slight advantage ATS, but I think the Titans are good enough to keep this one closer than 6.5

New England Patriots (4-5) @ Houston Texans (2-7) [+2]

Tommy: Patriots (-2). The Texans can't run the ball which will really burn them against New England. Bill Belichick and co. have a chance to get back in the wild card hunt with a victory, and a loss brings Houston that much closer to a top pic... oh wait. Houston doesn't have their first rounder. They'll still lose.

Derrick: Patriots (-2). The Patriots showed they can still play with the big dogs last week. They beat the Baltimore Ravens and only need a field goal to beat a much worse team in the Houston Texans ATS. Give me NE.

Sunday Afternoon Games

Miami Dolphins (6-3) @ Denver Broncos (3-6) [+3]

Tommy: Dolphins (-3). The Miami Dolphins are really good. Tua continues to slowly get comfortable running the offense and should take more steps forward this weekend. As long as the defense keeps showing out, Tua's growing pains won't cost them victories.

Derrick: Dolphins (-3). Miami is rolling. Sitting at 6-3, the Dolphins have a real chance to win the AFC East. This is my lock of the week. The Broncos will be with a hobbled Drew Lock & a run game that has been suspect all year. That doesn't mix well against this Miami defense. Give me the Phins.

New York Jets (0-9) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-7) [-8.5]

Tommy: Chargers (-8.5). This is a pick that I loved so much that I did flip it. I really think the Jets could keep this within a touchdown with two weeks of prep. It's probably their best chance left at a win in 2020. This is enough for me to flip and fade Adam Gase. Justin Herbert will finally have a stress-free start.

Derrick: Chargers (-8.5). Fade the Jets.

Green Bay Packers (7-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-3) [-2]

Tommy: Packers (+2). I don't pick against Aaron Rodgers as an underdog. Xavier Rhodes will probably see a lot of Davante Adams, and Rodgers is very familiar with Mr. Rhodes. Rodgers and Adams have been dicing him up for years. They should do enough to complement a rushing attack that will bounce back behind Aaron Jones.

Derrick: Packers (+2). GB has a great record ATS. Sitting at 6-3, I think they are poised to beat the spread again this week. Rodgers and Adams have never been more on point than now. This Indianapolis defense is nice but at the end of the day the Packers only need to win. I like the Packers to stay hot in Indy.

Dallas Cowboys (2-7) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5) [-7.5]

Tommy: Vikings (-7.5). I want it to be known that I still don't believe the Vikings are a good football team, but they should run wild against a Cowboys defense that can't defend the pass or tackle well.

Derrick: Vikings (-7.5). Minnesota is coming off a very impressive defensive performance against Chicago. They allowed only one touchdown defensively and kept Foles under wraps all night. I think it could be even uglier for the Cowboys who are 1-8 ATS. I like Minnesota by the spread and I think Dalvin Cook might outscore the Cowboys on Sunday.

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) [+7]

Tommy: Chiefs (-7). Chiefs will avenge their sole loss in 2020. They will be more prepared for the deep ball, and without it, the Raiders won't have enough to keep up. Andy Reid off a bye is the most automatic pick in football.

Derrick: Raiders (+7). Currenty LV has five offensive lineman on the Covid reserve list. They are all still eligible to play Sunday night but there's a chance they won't. If they don't suit up, change this pick immediately. If they do, I like the Raiders chances. The Raiders are the only team to beat the Chiefs this season and have a 6-3 record ATS. Give me Vegas to keep this game within a score.

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (6-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) [-4]

Tommy: Buccaneers (-4). Tampa Bay will force Jared Goff to beat them through the air. Anytime Goff is put in that position, he typically folds because it takes a great defense to make the Rams one dimensional. There aren't enough Jalen Ramseys to stop all those weapons at Brady's disposal. Tom finally plays well in primetime and Bucs cover.

Derrick: Rams (+4). The Bucs bounced back, but I genuinely think this is a game they could lose. Tampa Bay has been a streaky 7-3 team that has struggled against teams with good defenses (Saints, Bears, Packers). If this Rams defense shows up like they usually do, I think the Rams will cover.

Tommy's Picks (81-62-3 ATS):

Seahawks (-3) v Cardinals

Browns (-3.5) v Eagles

Falcons (+5) @ Saints

Bengals (+1.5) @ Football Team

Panthers (-1.5) v Lions

Steelers (-10) @ Jaguars

Titans (+6.5) @ Ravens

Patriots (-2) @ Texans

Dolphins (-3) @ Broncos

Chargers (-8.5) v Jets

Packers (+2) @ Colts

Vikings (-7.5) v Cowboys

Chiefs (-7) @ Raiders

Buccaneers (-4) v Rams

Derrick's Picks (70-73-3 ATS):

Cardinals (+3) @ Seahawks

Browns (-3.5) v Eagles

Falcons (+5) @ Saints

Bengals (+1.5) @ Football Team

Lions (+1.5) @ Panthers

Steelers (-10) @ Jaguars

Titans (+6.5) @ Ravens

Patriots (-2) @ Texans

Dolphins (-3) @ Broncos

Chargers (-8.5) v Jets

Packers (+2) @ Colts

Vikings (-7.5) v Cowboys

Raiders (+7) v Chiefs

Rams (+4) @ Buccaneers

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NFL Week 11 Fantasy Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Ben Roethlisburger, Pittsburgh Steelers (Road @ Jaguars)

Big Ben has been dicing lately. There are so many mouths to feed on that offense. Roethlisburger will find the open man all day long to the tune of another QB1 week.

Derrick: Alex Smith, Washington Football Team (Home v Bengals)

Smith put up 390 yards in his first start back from his gruesome leg injury. He faces the 26th worst pass defense this week and should light it up with McLaurin. I like his matchup a lot. Stream him if you’re missing your guy.

Running Backs

Tommy: JD McKissic, Washington Football Team (Home v Bengals)

McKissic is Alex Smith's favorite target and should see another big day against a Bengals defense that gives up yards through the air.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (Road @ Texans)

Damien Harris did a great job at establishing a physical presence for the New England rushing attack against Baltimore. They will attack Houston the same way. As long as he doesn't give up any TDs at the 1, he should be a viable flex play even with no ppr value.

Derrick: Salvon Ahmed, Miami Dolphins (Road @ Broncos)

Last week, Jordan Howard was a healthy scratch. That tells you what confidence the Dolphins have in Ahmed with Gaskin being out. Ahmed got 84% of Miami's rushes and faces a middle of the pack run defense this week.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (Road @ Seahawks)

Kirk caught 2 TDs last time out against Seattle who continues to struggle defending the pass. Hopkins will see double teams all night, so Kirk should have opportunities to light up the scoreboard once again.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (Road @ Football Team)

Higgins kind of flew under the radar for the first half of the season, but after another breakout performance agains the Steelers, he needs to be started in juicy matchups like this. Higgins has been just as impressive as any other rookie WR and should continue his solid season in Washington.

Derrick: Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (Road @ Vikings)

Amari always goes off against bad pass defenses. 15,12,28,16 against pass defenses who rank in the bottom half of the league. He gets Andy Dalton back and won't have to worry about dealing with a rookie under center. Start him.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers (Road @ Jaguars)

Claypool was disrespected not being in ESPN’s top 10 rookie list. He is obviously the 2nd best rookie receiver so in the draft trailing Justin Jefferson. He has a great matchup against the Jags and has a chip on his shoulder. Start him.

Tight End

Tommy: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers (Home v Jets)

Hunter Henry is never going to be a Travis Kelce-type, but owning a solid floor guy like him is huge at the tight end position. Don't get cute if you have him rostered. Put him in and let him get you the 8-15 points.

Derrick: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (Home v Titans)

We know we should start Mark Andrews, but his target share has been suspect this year. With Nick Boyle out for the season, his volume should increase and he has a chance to get back to his old self.

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (Road @ Browns)

I alluded to it earlier, but Wentz is a disaster under pressure. Nobody has been putting pressure on quarterbacks in 2020 like Myles Garrett. The best way to beat Cleveland's defense is with the deep ball, but I don't expect Philly to get that right when they couldn't against NYG or Dallas.

Derrick: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home v Rams)

Tom has failed to post over 20 against top 10 secondaries this year. He faces the second best secondary in the league this weekend. If history repeats itself, Tom will not have a great game.

Running Backs

Tommy: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (Home v Packers)

If you believe that the Colts can stop Aaron Rodgers, by all means go with Taylor. I think Green Bay will put up points and force Indianapolis to do the same. Nyheim Hines is Indy's best weapon out of the backfield right now, so I expect a heavier dose of Hines than Taylor.

Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (Home v Patriots)

Duke Johnson proved once again last week that he is nothing more than a change-of-pace back. Without another RB to relieve that pressure, I don't expect big games out of him.

Derrick: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (Home v Eagles)

Chubb is back. Kareem was able to slip into RB1 territory with Chubb out. He goes back down to a flex option. He is usable and will still get his touches, but tamper expectation.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos (Home v Dolphins)

The Dolphins defense is real solid, and there's a chance Drew Lock misses this contest. It'll be hard for Denver to get Jeudy the ball without Lock in there. I would keep him on the bench if you have other options.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (Home v Lions)

For similar reasons, I'd sit Anderson this week. I know Detroit's secondary is one to attack, but I don't see Anderson having a big game without Teddy B. I like DJ Moore's outlook more as he should be more comfortable and available with the simple playbook.

Derrick: Will Fuller V, Houston Texans (Home v Patriots)

Fuller is going to have to deal with Stephon Gilmore this weekend. Although Fuller has been a WR1 so far this year, I would consider other options if you have a good group of receivers.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (Road @ Football Team)

The Football team has shown they are just a solid defensive unit. They will get pressure on Burrow and they have a decent group of corners who could take away some opportunities for Higgins.

Tight End

Tommy: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (Home v Falcons)

Cook's goose egg last week is a red flag. Michael Thomas hasn't even commanded targets since returning but he's still diminishing Cook's fantasy value. Taysom Hill is eligible at TE in ESPN leagues, so if he gets QB run he could be a steal in the TE spot.

Derrick: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (Road @ Broncos)

Since Tua became the starter, Gesicki’s volume has plummeted. He hasn't seen more than five targets in the last three weeks. I would fade him until we see Tua target him more often.