Week 6 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

Week 6 Predictions

Last week brought us back down to earth a bit. I stayed above .500 going 8-6 and I'm at 48-29 ATS through week 5. Derrick went 6-8 and sits at 41-36. I took some brutal fantasy hits on my sit column, but I plan to bounce back in that regard this week. As for picks, I have 10 road teams covering spreads. Big Truss.

Sunday 1 EST/10 PST

Houston Texans (1-4) @ Tennessee Titans (4-0) [-3]

Tommy: Titans (-3). This pick is the first of many that sketch me out. The Titans seem due for a loss, but they just match up too well versus the Texans to pick against 'em. Derrick Henry's backup Evans is out, meaning he will likely go crazy this week in fantasy. Titans should control the clock and continue finding a way to win games even against an elite QB hungry for a big victory.

Derrick: Titans (-3). I like Tennessee by the spread. This team is coming off a big win against an undefeated Buffalo Bills team. The Titans remain undefeated. Going into their matchup with Houston, I just feel like the Titans are the more solid team. The Texans are also dealing with a new head coach.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-2) [-7.5]

Tommy: Bengals (+7.5). The Bengals burned me last week, but I will continue rolling with Burrow. I believe in him to keep games close against tougher opponents. The Ravens completely shut them down, but Indy's defense isn't as complete. Colts win but by a close margin.

Derrick: Colts (-7.5). I really do like what the future holds for Cincy. Burrow, Boyd, Mixon, Higgins. This offense will catch fire at some point, but not against Indy. Indy has the better team. Their defense has played like a top 5 defense all season long. I think it will overwhelm Burrow enough for the Colts to win by the spread.

Atlanta Falcons (0-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-4) [-4]

Tommy: Falcons (+4). I HATE THIS PICK. I have to go with my gut though. Vikings win... but it's close. I don't think the Falcons will win. I love Vikings ML. But close. Julio's return should help Matt Ryan look at least a little better. There might be 3 consecutive epic collapses in close out time.

Derrick: Falcons (+4). Atlanta has to win a few games this year right? I think they are in a prime position to do so against Minnesota. The Falcons have a big advantage in the passing game for this matchup, I don't think the Vikings will be able to keep up with Julio, Ridley and Hurst. Minnesota has one of the worst secondaries in the league. I like ATL to at least maintain the spread in this one.

Denver Broncos (1-3) @ New England Patriots (2-2) [-9.5]

Tommy: Patriots (-9.5). Belichick off a bye at home. Against an inferior opponent and inferior head coach (sorry Vic, incredible coordinator). Cam should play and lead this offense to scores. Their rushing attack is rocking & rolling. I am excited to see the Broncos return Lock and Lindsay, they should become more competitive over time.

Derrick: Patriots (-9.5). I usually don't like picking spreads that require teams to win by two scores, but Bill Belichick on after a bye week is hell for the opposing team. Both teams will be rejuvenated with Cam Newton and Drew Lock returning. I like the Patriots offense to have a big week and them to win by double digits.

Washington Football Team (1-4) @ New York Giants (0-5) [-2.5]

Tommy: Giants (-2.5). Do I really have to bet on either team? They'll probably tie. Both of these teams have short spurts where they've played well, but neither looks like a winning... Football Team. I guess I'll go with the Giants just to pick the home team for once.

Derrick: Football Team (+2.5). When the line is this close, I usually go with who I think will win. This week I like the Football Team. I think that front seven will disrupt this already broken offense to the point of no return. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington scores on defense this week. I like them to win and maintain the spread.

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-3-1) [+7.5]

Tommy: Ravens (-7.5). I'd like to apologize to Lamar Jackson for fading him last week. Even when he's struggling, this team just finds a way to win and cover. When they meet some tougher competition, it'll be harder to pick these 7+ spreads, but Philly ain't tougher competition.

Derrick: Ravens (-7.5). The Baltimore ravens are sitting at 4-1 with their only loss of the season coming from the Kansas City Chiefs, the eagles on the other hand are sitting at 1-3-1 with only a victory coming from a depleted 49ers team. The Ravens played cincinnati last weekend and they were blown out 27-3. The Eagles tied with the Bengals not too long ago, I like the Ravens by a lot.

Cleveland Browns (4-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (4-0) [-3]

Tommy: Steelers (-3). This game should be wildly entertaining. There has been some jawing about Myles Garrett's return to Pittsburgh. Both teams will be fired up. It's really a toss up for me, but I'm going to take the Steelers due to Big Ben's history against Cleveland.

Derrick: Steelers (-3). Browns have been on a roll, but I think that comes to an end this week. Steelers have the most pressures in the league so far and history has shown us that baker doesn’t play well against pressure. In 2019, Baker ranked dead last in QBR when under pressure. I like Steelers -3.

Chicago Bears (4-1) @ Carolina Panthers (3-2) [-1.5]

Tommy: Bears (+1.5). Huge game for both teams. I think the Bears will go on the road and win another close game. Look for more out of their running game against a Carolina D that gives up the most fantasy points to running backs. If this game is going to come down to which defense can make the big play, I'll go with Chicago.

Derrick: Panthers (-1.5). Chicago has been rolling! They have finally put together a game where the offense and defense both played pretty well. That being said, I really think people are sleeping on this Carolina team. Offseason additions Robby Anderson and Teddy Bridgewater have turned the tide on this team. I like Carolina this week, in a revenge game for Panthers running back MIke Davis.

Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) [+3]

Tommy: Lions (-3). Patricia is coaching for his job. He can't lose this one. Jaguars impressed early but have really disappointed as of late. I think Stafford and that offense will have a good day and pull out a victory.

Derrick: Jaguars (+3). This game is a tough decision. I think both teams can play better than what their records show. I'll choose Jacksonville strictly because they are the underdog. This game is really a toss up between two one win teams. Jacksonville has kept a majority of their games within one score, I think they are good enough to keep it within 3.5 on Sunday.

Sunday 4:25 EST/1:25 PST

New York Jets (0-5) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3) [-9.5]

Tommy: Jets (+9.5). Last week my "crucify me" bet was Vikings over Seattle. They came close and blew it, but still covered. This week I'll take the Jets to cover which is just as sketchy as another team winning. What's the point of all the game day beer and wings if you aren't willing to bet with your gut?

Derrick: Dolphins (-9.5). The New York Jets are horrible. They are now down Le’veon Bell, Sam Darnold, Denzel Mims, & Chris Hogan. So pretty much their whole offense. They are also coached by the one and only Adam Gase. Steer clear from ever betting on them to keep the spread. I mentioned earlier that I don't like taking two-score spreads, but here I am again taking Miami -9.5.

Green Bay Packers (4-0) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) [+1]

Tommy: Packers (-1). Adams is healthy and should make Rodgers look even more unstoppable. They have other playmakers playing well on both sides of the ball like Aaron Jones and Jaire Alexander. They should pull out a win after 2 weeks of preparation for Tampa.

Derrick: Packers (-1). Two future hall of fame QB’s... this has to be game of the week, right? Anyways, I wasn't impressed with Brady at all last week. I thought for one of the first times in his career he played lackadaisical. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers played lights out before the bye. Maybe Jordan Love put that chip on his shoulder? He was not this potent last season. I'll roll with Rodgers this week, spread is so close I believe whoever wins will cover.

Sunday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams (4-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-3) [+3]

Tommy: Rams (-3). "Prove it" game for L.A. The Rams will have to be ready to go, the 49ers have a lot to play for. But L.A. is well coached and seems to have enough internal motivation to take back that division. San Fran just has too much to sure up before they can hang with complete teams.

Derrick: Rams (-3). Jimmy G took the worst L of his career last weekend. He played absolutely terrible, his final stat line was 77 pass yards to go along with two picks. He gets to face Jalen and Aaron this week who will definitely disrupt his game. Not to mention that the Rams have quietly been a top ten team in the league this year. I like them by more than 3 this week.

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) @ Buffalo Bills (4-1) [+3.5]

Tommy: Chiefs (-3.5). I think both offenses will light in up because both of these teams need a bounce back performance. I gotta give the edge to Mahomes. There's a chance Kansas City gets on 2017 Warriors ish once Le'Veon gets acclimated. Even without him they have enough for that suddenly suspect Buffalo D.

Derrick: Chiefs (-3.5). The first of the Monday night double header looks like a great game on paper; however, I think the Chiefs take this one. After losing to the Raiders last week, I believe the Chiefs buckle down and enter Monday night with laser focus. The Bills took a disappointing loss to the Titans on Tuesday and just didn't look sharp at any point during the game. They are facing the defending super bowl champs on a short week, thus why I like KC by more than 3.5.

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-3) [+1.5]

Tommy: Cowboys (+1.5). Man... I feel terrible for Dak. Nobody deserves any injury let alone one as gruesome as what he suffered. I think the Cowboys will be fired up to get a victory Monday night. Those weapons are still there and healthy, and I still don't trust the Cardinals. Chandler Jones placed on IR too? Give me Dallas.

Derrick: Cardinals (-1.5). This Cowboys team will miss Prescott after breaking his ankle on a QB run last week. The Red Rocket Andy Dalton will take over this offense. I think overall Dalton will be okay down the road, but not good enough to win the division and not good enough to win this game. I like Kyler and his weapons to put up a lot of points on this shaky secondary. Give me Arizona.

Tommy's Picks (48-29):

Titans (-3) v Texans

Bengals (+7.5) @ Colts

Falcons (+4) @ Vikings Patriots (-9.5) v Broncos

Giants (-2.5) v Football Team

Ravens (-7.5) @ Eagles

Steelers (-3) @ Browns

Bears (+1.5) @ Panthers

Lions (-3) @ Jaguars

Jets (+9.5) @ Dolphins

Packers (-1) @ Buccaneers

Rams (-3) @ 49ers

Chiefs (-3.5) @ Bills

Cowboys (+1.5) v Cardinals

Derrick's Picks (41-36):

Titans (-3) v Texans

Colts (-7.5) v Bengals

Falcons (+4) @ Vikings

Patriots (-9.5) v Broncos

Football Team (+2.5) @ Giants

Ravens (-7.5) @ Eagles

Steelers (-3) v Browns

Panthers (-1.5) v Bears

Jaguars (-3) v Lions

Dolphins (-9.5) v Jets

Packers (-1) @ Buccaneers

Rams (-3) @ 49ers

Chiefs (-3.5) @ Bills

Cardinals (-1.5) @ Cowboys

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Week 6 Fantasy Football Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (Home v Falcons)

The Falcons let everyone torch. Kirk isn't my favorite QB, but he does enough when given easy opportunities. I expect this game to be high scoring. Falcons can't tackle which gives Cousins' weapons YAC opportunities, and Cook's absence should mean more attempts for Kirk.

Derrick: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins (Home v Jets)

Fitz was at it again last weekend, he posted 350 yards 3 TD’s and zero picks. This Sunday he will face the worst team in the NFL, the Jets. This defense struggles on all phases. Start Fitz unless you have a top 5 QB.

Running Backs

Tommy: Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (Home v Bears)

The Bears have been really good at defending the pass but not so good against the run. I don't expect Davis to match his 29 point performance from last week, but he could come close. With CMac's return looming, Carolina won't need to limit Davis' work whatsoever.

Ronald Jones Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home v Packers)

Ronald Jones has been great this season. I think his play has solidified himself as the lead back even with a Fournette return. Tampa will look to utilize that entire backfield in efforts to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. RoJo isn't a top 10 play, but I think you can trust him in the FLEX.

Derrick: Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (Home v Falcons)

Spider man pointing at each other meme? Thats Alexander Mattison looking at his workload versus Dalvin Cook's while he’s sidelined this week. Check daily to make sure Cook is sitting this week, but if he is Mattison could realistically be a top 5 play at the running back position. Fire him up.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (Home v Lions)

The Illinois State alum has been pretty disappointing the last two weeks, I think he has a great chance to bounce back against this soft Detroit run defense. Reports last week also talked about getting Robinson the ball more often in the second half. If the Jaqs can ever maintain a lead, Robinson’s work load will skyrocket.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (Road @ 49ers)

Man oh man, that 49ers secondary looked sketchy against Fitzmagic. Robert Woods has been his usual, consistent self again early this year. The Rams offense is so hard to figure out, but Woods (and Kupp) should remain starts in favorable matchups.

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (Road @ Dolphins)

If my "crucify me" pick is going to be the Jets, might as well throw their only viable offensive weapon on the start column. No one should be excited about starting a Jet, but Crowder has been extremely fantasy viable even through these darkest of times.

Derrick: Will Fuller V, Houston Texans (Road v Titans)

Fuller has quietly been Watson’s go to guy. Fuller’s lowest point total of the season in games he finished is 13. He faces the Titans this week who can give up some big time games to receivers. Fuller is a must start this week IMO.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (Home v Falcons)

One of the best waiver wire pickups of the season so far, Jefferson is getting ROTY looks. Pro Football Focus has Jefferson with the best grade of ANY receiver in the NFL currently. Yes, over guys like Hopkins, Evans, Theilen, & Hill. He faces a piss poor secondary this week and should be targeted a little more with Cook sidelined.

Tight End

Tommy: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans (Home v Texans)

Jonnu has stepped into start him and forget it territory due to the weak tight end position. The Titans should get Jonnu enough volume and he's become a great red zone threat. Especially when refs are letting Tannehill throw to him 3 yards over the line of scrimmage.

Derrick: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (Road @ Bucs)

Tonyan is getting a start of the week from me because he is beginning to look like one of Aaron Rodgers' favorite targets. Before his bye week, he hauled in 6 catches for 98 yards and three TDs. The game before that, he hauled in 5-50-1. It’ll be interesting to see how his volume changes now that Adams is back, but Tonyan is a must start unless you have Kittle, Kelce, Andrews, Ertz, Hockenson, or Jonnu Smith.

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers (Home v Bears)

The Bears defense has been super stingy fantasy wise for opposing quarterbacks. Even if the Panthers pull out a victory, I don't see Bridgewater lighting it up with TDs. Teddy should remain a fantasy starter in favorable matchups.

Derrick: Jimmy G, San Francisco 49ers (Road @ Rams)

Kyle Shanahan benched Jimmy G to protect his ankle injury, butttttt I think it was just because he was playing like chit. I hated his gameplay last week and I really hate his matchup against LA. He will be defended by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey this week, pressure and clamps.

Running Backs

Tommy: James White, New England Patriots (Home v Broncos)

We all know what James White brings to the table. I don't anticipate his role being needed very often in a game I expect the Patriots to cruise in. Expect more Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead on Sunday.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos (Road @ Patriots)

So as of Thursday night, I guess Gordon is expected to play Sunday. Expect limited work at the least. Fangio might dress him and leave him on the sideline. Some form of discipline is coming for MGIII, and it's not even a good matchup anyway. Philip Lindsay is a waiver wire guy to look at if you're desperate at RB. If Gordon sits, Lindsay's volume will give him some upside.

Derrick: Frank Gore, New York Jets (Road @ Dolphins)

Some of you might've thought, “Oh, Bell is gone, let me hit the waiver wire and grab Frank Gore” NOPE. I love working the waiver wire and picking up guys who will take over carries, but it's still the Jets. Stay far away from that offense unless his name is Jamison Crowder.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (Road @ Colts)

Mixon is so wishy washy. He gives you Barry Sanders like production when he faces bad run defenses then give you Eddy Lacy numbers when he faces good defenses. Against defenses ranked in the top 20 he's failed to top over 11 points. When he faced a bad run defense in Jacksonville he posted 40. I would sit him against one of the best defenses in the league. The colts will for sure be loading the box.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Home v Packers)

Godwin is still questionable to play, but assuming he will (huge game), I don't like the matchup against Jaire Alexander. Last time we saw Alexander, he was locking up Calvin Ridley for a DONUT. Godwin should return to form at some point, but this is a brutal draw to return off injury to.

San Francisco 49ers WRs (Home v Rams)

There's just no one I fully trust in this WR group. Aiyuk has had some splash plays but no consistency. Deebo is still working off injury. No one else is really worth mentioning. If this passing attack gets going, there's no predicting where it'll come from. Unless you have George Kittle, I'd play the waiting game.

Derrick: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (Home v Browns)

Johnson has been so disappointing this season. He’s seen the most targets on the team so far and has done the least with it. He faces another bad secondary this week, and I just don't expect him to pop off. Week one he had 10 targets for 6 points, week two he had 10 targets for 19 points. Week 3 he only had two targets, and his last game he had one catch for negative yards. His matchup is great, but I would sit him if you have other options, Maybe hit the waiver wire if you don't.

TY Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (Home v Bengals)

Remember when Hilton was a set it and forget it type player? I mean he was a must start on a weekly basis for the last couple years. Phillip Rivers ruined him. At this point I would consider trading Hilton and taking any WR2 or maybe 3 that you could get back for him. He faces Cincy this week. If Phillip Rivers wasn’t taking snaps I would tell you to start him, but he’s a sit this week for me.

Tight End

Tommy: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (Home v Ravens)

This entire Philly offense has underperformed, but perhaps no one in the league has been more disappointing than Ertz. He's undroppable with the tight end market being so shallow; being an Ertz owner is a terrible spot right now. Baltimore's defense is not the unit to get on track against.

Derrick: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons (Road @ Vikings)

Im an honest man, I make mistakes. I hyped Hurst up all offseason. I figured him taking over Hooper's role from last season combined with the fact that the Falcons gave up a 2nd round pick for him would mean he would be involved just as much as Hooper was. I was right about volume, but Hurst doesn't make the most of his opportunities. He’s catching only about half of the balls thrown his way in the last 3 weeks. Fade him unless you're in a deeper league.