Week 5 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

Week 5 NFL Predictions

Here's the deal... I'm coming off an 11-4 week. I'm 4-0 on Thursday Night Football picks. 40-23 overall... but the lines in week 5 are very questionable; the NFL is pulling out all the stops to halt my hot streak. I'm not going to let it happen. Derrick's fantasy picks were money last week. Keep rocking with us. Let's keep this thing rollin'.

Thursday Night Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) @ Chicago Bears (3-1) [+3.5]

Tommy: Buccaneers (-3.5). Everyone has their eye on the status of the Buccaneers' pass catchers, but their defense will lead them to victory on Thursday night. Matt Nagy has been figured out by defensive coordinators. Playing on a short week, against a stout D, won't help. The Bears could keep it close through their bend-but-don't-break defense, but it could get ugly just as easily.

Derrick: Buccaneers (-3.5). The Chicago Bears offense really struggled to get anything going last week, This week won't be any easier for them as they face one of the best defenses in the NFC. I like Chicago’s defense, but they have to gain some type of identity on offense if they want to beat good teams. I like the Bucs by at least a TD.

Sunday 1 EST/10 PST

Carolina Panthers (2-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (0-4) [-2]

Tommy: Panthers (+2). The Falcons desperately need a win, but that's been the case for three weeks. Teddy B has played great football to begin the season. The Falcons looked like a team that lost their identity on MNF. My gut wants to take Atlanta, but my brain says Carolina gets it done. Matt Rhule seems to have the full trust of his guys. Can't say the same about Dan Quinn.

Derrick: Falcons (-2). It's now week 4 and the Falcons are still winless, I think this means that Dan Quinn could be coaching for his job this weekend. Anyways, I'm going Atlanta here.I think this is by far the worst team the team they have played, and if they want a chance to salvage the season they have to do it this weekend. Must win for Dan Quinn and the Falcons.

Buffalo Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee Titans (3-0) [+1]

Tommy: Bills (-1). Tennessee hasn't played in two weeks, but they also haven't been able to practice. I think this game will be competitive, but this Bills team is rolling. Josh Allen is one fire; Tennessee won't be able to slow him down. I'll be keeping an eye on the Bills rushing defense against Derrick Henry. If Buffalo contains him early, the game should play out in their favor easily.

Derrick: Bills (-1). This game probably won't happen due to Tennessee and their mishaps, but if it does I like Buffalo. The Bills & Josh Allen have been hitting on all cylinders, averaging about 30 points per game. I just couldn't see Tennessee’s smash mouth offense keeping up with the Bills. If this game happens I would take Buffalo by a TD.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) [-13]

Tommy: Raiders (+13). I hate betting against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs defense got ran over a little bit by New England but also made big plays at opportune times. I think the Raiders cover because Gruden will have his men fired up. This game presents a huge opportunity for Las Vegas to stay in reach of KC in the West, and I think they keep it closer than 13 when it's all said and done.

Derrick: Chiefs (-13). Honestly, I wasn't impressed by KC last week. They didn't look as solid as they usually do and got blessed with a couple questionable calls. I still think they are leaps and bounds better than Las Vegas. I look for Pat Mahomes and his guys to have somewhat of a bounce back game against a division rival this week.

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) @ New York Jets (0-4) [+7]

Tommy: Cardinals (-7). I guarantee all bettors said to themselves last week, "I'm not betting on the Cardinals/Jets again this season." Well, here we are. I do not feel comfortable with this pick at all, and it's AGAINST THE JETS. Kyler Murray needs to show me something this week, but there's no better opportunity to get back on track than in New York.

Derrick: Cardinals (-7). The Cardinals started out hot this year and looked like a real Super Bowl contender. That flame went out quick. Still though, the jets are the worst team in football playing without their starting QB. I think the Jets will be much worse without Darnold, and we’ll get a chance to see on Sunday. I like AZ by the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2-1) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) [-7]

Tommy: Steelers (-7). Really tough pick for me here. I think the Eagles will be the hungrier team in this matchup, but their personnel just doesn't match up. Pittsburgh's blitz will eat Wentz alive eventually. Big Ben and his weapons should all be healthy coming off the unexpected bye week. I'm more comfortable with Steelers ML, but I'll lay the points.

Derrick: Eagles (+7). Pittsburgh is undefeated through 4 weeks, but their three opponents combined have only won once. NYG, DEN, HOU- ugly winning resume. I don't think the Eagles are necessarily a great opponent, but I do think they are the toughest team Pittsburgh will play so far. The Eagles lead the league in sacks at 17, and the Steelers are right below them tied for 2nd at 15. I think this will be a defensive, low scoring battle and I think it’ll be close either way.

Los Angeles Rams (3-1) @ Washington Football Team (1-3) [+7]

Tommy: Rams (-7) I don't think this Washington squad is as bad as last year. They finally have a solid running back in Antonio Gibson. Terry McLaurin looks like a true WR1. The issue continues to be QB play. Dwayne Haskins has been benched for Kyle Allen, and for that reason I have to take the Rams. Allen might give Washington a better chance at winning the NFC East, but easing into the starting role won't be easy with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey on the other side of the ball.

Derrick: Rams (-7). Dwayne Haskins benched?? I would've taken this spread regardless of who was under center, but now I like it even more. We all watched Kyle Allen play well last year for a few weeks and then slump off, I don't honestly believe he is an upgrade from Haskins. New QB, new timing, chemistry could be off etc etc. I'm taking the hot hand here with the LA Rams who have been impressive since the season started.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1) @ Baltimore Ravens (3-1) [-13]

Tommy: Bengals (+13). I'm going with another underdog here. I don't think Bengals win the game, but they should cover 13. Even if they get down big, Joe Burrow will play this one through the end. Joe Mixon finally had a breakthrough game, and Tee Higgins looks like a real weapon. The Ravens will continue to come into their own throughout the season, but I expect it to be more gradual than people expect.

Derrick: Ravens (-13). This is one of the easiest picks of the week, Would be an absolute upset if the Bengals win. I like Burrow but there's no way this Cincy offense is going to be successful like they were last week against this stout Baltimore D. The Bengals won't be able to contain Lamar either. I like the Ravens by a ton.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) @ Houston Texans (0-4) [-6]

Tommy: Texans (-6). I think the Texans offense will be almost completely in Deshaun Watson's control. The Texans will play this game with a lot of pride on both sides of the ball. The Jags have to win this game to salvage any hope for their season, but I just feel like Minshew's magic has run out. They are coming off back-to-back losses to Miami and Cincinnati...not good.

Derrick: Texans (-6). B.O.B is finally gone, all Texans fans rejoice. Truthfully, this is a game I wouldn't place a bet on. Both are bad teams and the more talented team is dealing with interim coaches. I’m going with Houston because of vet experience and the fact that they have more star power.

Sunday 4:25 EST/1:25 PST

Miami Dolphins (1-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-2) [-8]

Tommy: 49ers (-8). I think this is the week both of these teams flip things around. The Dolphins have been playing well, but it's their turn to travel across the country now. Tua time could be approaching, but Fitzpatrick will be out there again. I think we finally see him struggle. The 49ers need to win to keep pace in the NFC West. Despite the loss to Philly, George Kittle showed he's ready to shoulder the load for this offense again, and the other weapons are getting healthier.

Derrick: Dolphins (+8). Last week, Miami showed some real grit against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. They were neck and neck pretty much the whole game, and most people view the Seahawks as a Super Bowl contender (inculding me). I like their chances of staying in this one as well, maybe even winning. The 49ers are still pretty banged up and could be switching QB’s yet again, Doesn't bode well for them covering this week. I like Miami.

Indianapolis Colts (3-1) @ Cleveland Browns (3-1) [+1.5]

Tommy: Colts (-1.5). You have good on good in this one with the Colts run D against the Browns rushing attack. The Colts are built to stop the run and defend against play action. That should create fits for Baker Mayfield. I hope Mayfield and Rivers can have the poise to make this a great matchup as it should be, but both QBs could get sloppy. I'll give the advantage to the vet; Browns can't go 4-1, can they?

Derrick: Colts (-1.5). Cleveland's offense put on an absolute show last weekend, They faced maybe the worst secondary in the league. I do not see them having the same success this week against a really good Colts defense. The Colts have only given up 29 points COMBINED to their last three opponents. The browns are a team that relies on their offense to win games, I like the Colts with the spread.

New York Giants (0-4) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-3) [-9.5]

Tommy: Giants (+9.5). People will say that the Giants offense won't be able to keep up with Dak and the Cowboys. I completely disagree, simply because Dallas' defense is that bad. I think Dallas wins the game, but I can't bet on a team to win by double-digits that is 1-3 with the sole win coming via a 1-point miracle. Giants have put up respectable performances against the Steelers, Bears and Rams.

Derrick: Cowboys (-9.5). This is a pretty easy one for me, I think Dallas desperately needs this win and I believe they'll get it. The NYG are one of the worst teams in the league, They struggle in all three phases of the game. Dallas really only struggles in one; the defense. Dak and his weapons should make up for his atrocious defense and give them the win, I like Dal -9.5.

Denver Broncos (1-3) @ New England Patriots (2-2)

Tommy: Patriots. The line may switch throughout the rest of the week depending on Cam Newton's status for the game. Regardless of where it lands, I think the Patriots roll in this one. New England had a great scheme for the Chiefs on Monday night but ended up beating themselves. Belichick won't let that happen twice in a row, especially against a subpar Broncos club.

Derrick: Patriots. I don't love this Patriots team, especially without Cam. I still think they will win this game pretty easily. The Broncos are down Noah fant, Cortland Sutton, and Drew Lock. These loses are insurmountable. New England has a good defense and is very well coached. Look for them to bounce back against Denver. Give me NE.

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings (1-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-0) [-7]

Tommy: Vikings (+7). Taking Kirk Cousins in primetime over Russell Wilson? Crucify me if this pick is wrong, but I think the Vikings win on Sunday night. Wilson should be able to exploit the holes in the Vikings defense better than Deshaun Watson could, but this Seattle defense is reeling. The Vikings running attack continues to impress, and although Cousins typically struggles in these matchups, the play action should give him great opportunities to hit playmakers Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.

Derrick: Seahawks (-7). The Vikings (other than Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen) have been straight up disappointing. They’re playing a super bowl contender and early MVP candidate Russell Wilson this week…..good luck stopping him. If I were betting on this one, I wouldn't hesitate to take Seattle with the spread.

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (1-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-2) [-7.5]

Tommy: Saints (-7.5). The Saints dominate October football. The Chargers continue to be decimated by injury and have now dropped 3 in a row. Justin Herbert has been lights out off the bench, but going into the Superdome for MNF (even without fans) is a tough task. Drew Brees should finally get Michael Thomas back. This Saints offense will click and this team will regain everyone's attention.

Derrick: Chargers (+7.5). I'm becoming a fan of Justin Herbert, The rookie has thrown for right around 300 yards these last 3 games and is really giving his offense a spark. Basically, Herbert has kept his team within a score each week against some really good opponents. I think the Chargers have a legitimate chance of winning this game which is why I like them to cover the spread.

Tommy's Picks (40-23):

Buccaneers (-4.5) @ Bears

Panthers (+2) @ Falcons

Bills (-1) @ Titans

Raiders (+13) @ Chiefs

Cardinals (-7) @ Jets

Steelers (-7) v Eagles

Rams (-7) @ Football Team

Bengals (+13) @ Ravens

Texans (-6) v Jaguars

49ers (-8) v Dolphins

Colts (-1.5) @ Browns

Giants (+9.5) @ Cowboys

Patriots v Broncos

Vikings (+7) @ Seahawks

Saints (-7.5) v Chargers

Derrick's Picks (35-28):

Buccaneers (-3.5) @ Bears

Falcons (-2) v Panthers

Bills (-1) @ Titans

Chiefs (-13) v Raiders

Cardinals (-7) @ Jets

Eagles (+7) @ Steelers

Rams (-7) @ Football Team

Ravens (-13) v Bengals

Texans (-6) v Jaguars

Dolphins (+8) @ 49ers

Colts (-1.5) @ Browns

Cowboys (-9.5) v Giants

Patriots v Broncos

Seahawks (-7) v Vikings

Chargers (+7.5) @ Saints

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Week 5 Fantasy Football Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers (Road @ Falcons)

As I said before, Teddy B has had a great start to the season. Not only is he managing games and making smart plays, but he's actually throwing the ball extremely well (6th in passing yards). Atlanta gives opponents free TDs through the air every week, and any game they play is likely to end in a shootout.

Derrick: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (Road @ Saints)

Herbert is going up against the 6th worst pass defense in the league this weekend. He played the 5th best pass defense last week and ended up 26.9 FTPS. Herbert is gaining a rapport with wideouts and is becoming a guy you have to look at starting.

Running Backs

Tommy: Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (Home v Rams)

Gibson will have to continue his solid play to earn a bigger role in this offense, but his increased touches have made him a fantasy-viable player now. It'll be interesting to see how his usage changes with Kyle Allen, but I think his target share out of the backfield only will increase. If Washington phases out McKissic or Barber full time, Gibson will become a real hot commodity.

Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons (Home v Panthers)

Before Kenyan Drake bottomed out against Carolina last week, they were giving up the second most fantasy points to running backs. Gurley still hasn't found much of the passing work, but he looked like their best weapon on Monday night when Julio went down. When teams are struggling, they tend to get back on track by running the football.

Derrick: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (Home v Colts)

Nick Chubb heading to IR shouldn't worry Browns fans too much, They are replacing him with the rookie rushing leader from a couple seasons ago. Hunt scored twice after Chubb went down, He is in a great spot to put up some good numbers this weekend.

David Johnson, Houston Texans (Home v Jaguars)

Johnson hasn't wowed anybody with his stats this season but he has been consistent. He’s put up 11.2 and 12.6 in his last two games against stout run defenses, He will have the opportunity to face a much softer Jaguars defense this week. Fire him up.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (Road @ Seahawks)

Justin Jefferson is coming off a couple real strong weeks. He's the perfect receiver for Kirk Cousins (he's basically Adam Thielen 2.0) and faces one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. I think the Vikings surprise people and keep this Sunday night game close with Jefferson playing a huge role.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens (Home v Bengals)

"Hollywood" Brown hasn't been flashing the way people expected. Lamar Jackson barely missed him on two more big shots against Washington after their terrible chemistry against Kansas City. The targets continue to come though, and the Ravens will have no choice but to go to Brown in times of need. I think we've seen Brown's floor & now is time for a couple big games.

Derrick: Darius Slayton, New York Giants (Road @ Cowboys)

We’ve all been waiting for Slayton to pop off since week 1 where he scored 28 FTPS. I think this is the week he could do it. The Cowboys have the 3rd worst secondary in the league and will probably still lead most of this game. I see a lot of passing from Daniel Jones this week with a pretty good target share going to Slayton.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (Road @ Falcons)

Of course if you have more consistent options, go with them, but Anderson has a matchup that could give him WR2 numbers. Anderson has been absolutely solid so far this season brining in more FTPS than teammate DJ Moore. He's playing against a young banged up Falcons team where he has a real chance of popping off.

Tight End

Tommy: Evan Engram, New York Giants (Road @ Cowboys)

Engram won't have many plus matchups this year on this underwhelming offense that hasn't put up 20 points yet this season, but he has one here. The Cowboys secondary runs around like chickens with their heads cut off, not covering or tackling anybody. Engram should see enough volume to be a safe play at the TE position this week.

Derrick: Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (Home v Eagles)

Philly has given up the most FTPS to tight ends this season because of their horrible linebacker play, Ebron has a great opportunity to have his best game of the season this weekend. If you dont have a top 5 TE in your lineup I would seriously consider grabbing Ebron James off the wire.

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins (Road @ 49ers)

Week 5 is usually when Fitzpatrick starts looking back toward bench duties. The Dolphins are playing it safe with Tua, as they should, but I don't expect Fitzmagic to continue his productive ways. The 49ers have a lot of injuries but still will offer more resistance than the Seahawks. Add in the long roadtrip and you have a sit. Target Teddy B or Cousins on waivers instead.

Derrick: Nick Foles, Chicago Bears (Home v Buccaneers)

Nick Foles just couldn't get it done last weekend against Indy, putting up just 15 FTPS. That type of day from your QB could really tamper your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. He plays the best secondary in the league this week. Sit em.

Running Backs

Tommy: David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (Home v Buccaneers)

Matt Nagy refuses to give Montgomery a bellcow workload. Pile that on top of a matchup versus a solid Bucs defense and you get a sit. Not to mention the Bears have taken a flier on Lamar Miller who could very may well be active Sunday. Bears offense is a mess.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals (Road @ Jets)

If you drafted Kenyan Drake (like I did), I'm not here to pile onto your misery. I'm just here to tell you it's time. Kenyan Drake ran 0 routes last week. Not 0 catches, not even 0 targets. He didn't run a route. With Chase Edmonds taking away passing work, and Kyler taking away TDs, Drake has become a ppr liability. Last week, I told you Joe Mixon was a ppr liability and he shoved it in my face. Don't care. Fade Drake.

Derrick: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers (Home v Eagles)

This Philly defense has made a living the last few seasons on having a solid run defense, They showed they are capable of shutting down the run last week by holding McKinnon to only 54 rushing yards. PHI is currently ranked the 10th best run defense in the league. If you have someone on your bench who has a better matchup go with them. I'm not shunning Conner this week, but beware.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (Home v Buccaneers)

Two of my sits are Chicago players this week, I don't want any part of that offense right now….. Unless your name is Allen Robinson. Montgomery is the clear feature back for the Bears and he has only put up double digits twice so far. I don't like Montgomery against this Bucs defense.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: TY Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (Road v Browns)

If there's one bright spot in Cleveland's secondary right now, it's Denzel Ward. He likely will cover Hilton on passing downs. Rivers had 3 healthy running backs and tight ends at his disposal. Facing another good pass rush, expect him to continue utilizing those guys over T.Y.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (Home v Jags)

Cooks has gotten less and less explosive since his time in New Orleans. There is a lot to observe about how this Houston offense will operate moving forward, but Cooks doesn't have my trust as a fantasy option unless something changes. He's worth a stash due to Will Fuller's never-ending injury concerns.

Derrick: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (Home v Giants)

Gallup was one of the best waiver wire pick ups of the year last year. He's been a disappointment so far and you should maybe think about dropping him this week if he still hasn't gotten involved. There should be no way the Cowboys are putting up over 30 points a game and Gallup is only seeing 5 targets. His volume is very suspect, sit him.

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets (Home v Cardinals)

Crowder is the best offensive weapon on his team right now. He will be matched up with Patrick Peterson all game, which is never fun for opposing receivers. Crowder will also be working with Flacco and not Darnold. I don't like his odds of having a great game. Sit him.

Tight End

Tommy: Greg Olsen, Seattle Seahawks (Home v Vikings)

After hauling in 5 catches on 7 targets last week, you may be thinking about getting your slice of the Seattle pie through Greg Olsen. Don't. He has no upside. P.S. WR David Moore won't have the consistency to warrant a roster spot either unless you're in a deep, WR-heavy league.

Derrick: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (Road @ 49ers)

Gesiki had one really big game and has been a fantasy disappointment since. He matches up with San Francisco this week who only gave up 4 receptions for 9 yards against Zach Ertz. He plays a very similar role as Ertz, with both of them lining up in the slot occasionally. I think the 49ers will game plan Gesicki out of this one. Sit em.