Week 4 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

Week 4 NFL Predictions

We've made it to week 4 despite Tennessee's COVID scare. We're down to 15 games, but that's okay because the board presents the perfect bounce-back opportunity. 8 teams are still looking for their first win while 7 teams remain undefeated (5 will play). I'm sitting at 29-19 in game picks, one game ahead of Derrick at 28-20.

Thursday Night Football

Denver Broncos (0-3) @ New York Jets (0-3) [-1.5]:

Tommy: Broncos (+1.5). This game is still a toss up to me even though the Jets are horrible. Broncos are down a bunch of starters including their best player and starting QB. We still haven't seen the J-E-T-S look like a competent football team all season, so I'm taking the Broncos. The losing coach will be on the verge of losing his job, while the winning coach will still likely remain on the hot seat.

Derrick: Jets (-1.5). I think the Jets finally have a chance to pull one off. This Broncos team showed some promise in week 2 against Pittsburgh, but after losing Drew Lock they have been a mess. I like the Jets.

Sunday 1:00 EST/10:00 PST

Indianapolis Colts (2-1) @ Chicago Bears (3-0) [+2.5]:

Tommy: Bears (+2.5). The Bears keep finding ways to win games. With Nick Foles starting, I like Chicago's offense to move the ball. The Bears will need to continue finding success in the red zone, but if Foles can lead the Bears to 24+ points their defense should handle the rest.

Derrick: Bears (+2.5). Bears are rolling! A lot of people (including myself) figured the Bears would be slightly below average again. 3 weeks in, here they are sitting at 3-0. I think the players feel a little rejuvenated and are ready to play hard for Foles. Not to discredit the Colts who have been playing well too. I think the Bears win by the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-2-1) [-3]:

Tommy: Bengals (-3). Joe Burrow is hungry for his first victory. After coming up just shy against the Eagles, I think he gets in the win column against a lowly Jags D. Minshew looked very uncharacteristic last Thursday without his #1 wideout D.J. Chark, but both QBs should have a full arsenal of weapons in this matchup. That may cause me to look at the OVER here as well (line sitting at 48.5 currently).

Derrick: Jaguars (+3). This is definitely one of the harder picks this week. Both teams are pretty bad. I think this is really one of those picks you can flip a coin on. I'm going to give the edge to Minshew and the Jags. They have a little more experience and have shown they can put up big points on bad defenses. I like Burrow + Tee Higgins a lot, they are sure to be a force in the future.

Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2) [-4.5]:

Tommy: Cowboys (-4.5). The Browns have had a nice turnaround these last few weeks, but they faced the Bengals and Washington. I think a road test against Dak and the Cowboys will bring Cleveland back down to earth. After two losses, Dak is still fighting hard for his contract money. I expect the Cowboys to pull away in the second half of this one.

Derrick: Cowboys (-4.5). At some point this talented offense has to start winning. Dak has too many weapons to lose to sub-par teams like the Browns. I think if the Cowboys have a chance to turn this season around they need to do it here. Must win for Dallas, I like them with the spread.

New Orleans Saints (1-2) @ Detroit Lions (1-2) [+4]:

Tommy: Saints (-4). I actually think the Lions stack up well against the Saints based on what we've seen early on this season. I'm still taking Payton over Patricia in a game the Saints need to win to avoid a 1-3 start. The Saints should get Michael Thomas back in week 5, but I don't imagine they want to go winless in his absence. They'll be all fired up.

Derrick: Saints (-4). Pressure is on in New Orleans. After a 1-2 start for the Saints, you have to believe they pull it together against an average Detroit team. Many people had the Saints as a Super Bowl favorite to open the season. I think this week is a must win for Drew Brees, and I like the Future Hall Of Famer to get it done this week.

Seattle Seahawks (3-0) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2) [+6.5]:

Tommy: Seahawks (-6.5). I'm going toe-to-toe with Vegas here. I know the line sits at 6.5 because the Seahawks are allergic to blowouts, but I'm still riding Seattle. Russell Wilson should keep up his MVP pace, and I think he could even end up sitting out the end of this game. Fitzmagic has had two good games in a row, meaning the regression should be right around the corner. Seahawks are the first team to ever give up 1200 yards passing through 3 weeks. Their defense needs to have a strong performance.

Derrick: Seahawks (-6.5). Seahawks are real!! Miami is not. Last week I watched Russell Wilson do it again. He is putting up crazy numbers this year with this arsenal of weapons, and I don't think anyone in Miami can do anything to slow him down. Russ is going to cook this week again, just as I predicted last week.

Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) [-7]:

Tommy: Buccaneers (-7). Both of these teams burned me last week, so I'm sure I'll be burned with this pick. I think the Bucs are steadily turning into the football team many expected to see when Brady signed. The defense looked better last week albeit against the Broncos. The Chargers offense looked too dependent on Ekeler and Allen against the Panthers. They also won't have Melvin Ingram or Chris Harris to go with Derwin James' absence on defense.

Derrick: Buccaneers (-7). This is going to be a really good game, imo. A loaded Bucs offense (minus Godwin) versus a pretty solid Chargers defense. I like the Bucs more here. To go along with the stacked offense full of vets, they have a pretty good defense as well. I think Herbert could struggle this week, and I like Tampa with the spread.

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Washington Football Team (1-2) [+12]:

Tommy: Ravens (-12). No team looked more out of sorts in week 3 than the Ravens. Lamar Jackson is now 0-3 in the regular season against the Chiefs, but he still dominates the rest of the league. I expect him to dominate a Washington team that looked clueless facing Kyler Murray in week 2. Expect a huge bounce back game from Baltimore on both sides of the football.

Derrick: Ravens (-12). Baltimore looked deflated a few days ago against KC, but it's because they played KC. I think the Football Team is starting to get back to their old ways, coming off a tough loss to the Browns. I don't think Washington has enough on defense to stop the Ravens from scoring all day. I like Baltimore with the spread.

Arizona Cardinals (2-1) @ Carolina Panthers (1-2) [+3.5]:

Tommy: Cardinals (-3.5). Speaking of Kyler Murray, he may be runner-up to Jackson in QBs that looked out of sorts last week. Murray's 3 interceptions were costly as the Cardinals dropped their first game of the season. I think he will bounce back against a Panthers team that shouldn't be able to contain him. It isn't ideal to have Kyler running around every week, but the Cardinals will need that to keep pace in the NFL's toughest division.

Derrick: Cardinals (-3.5). Arizona let one slip away last week against Detroit. They seemed to pretty much control the pace of the game all the way up until the fourth quarter. I think this is going to be a huge bounce back game for the playoff contender Cardinals. This Panthers defense is pretty bad. I predict Kyler and Nuk will take advantage early and often.

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) @ Houston Texans (0-3) [-4]:

Tommy: Vikings (+4). The whole world is on the Texans here, so I'm taking the Vikings. These two teams are better than their 0-3 starts, but at least the Texans have the excuse of their schedule. I'm still taking Minnesota to keep it within a field goal because their running game has returned to form. This Texans team still has holes, and Minnesota is just as desperate for a victory as Houston.

Derrick: Texans (-4). Will Minnesota get their first win of the year? Nope. Covid came at a bad time for the Vikings who essentially won't be able to practice all week but will travel to Houston and play anyway. I like the Texans to win by a few touchdowns this week. They are hungry for wins as well.

Sunday 4:25 EST/1:25 PST

New York Giants (0-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-1) [-12]:

Tommy: Rams (-12). The Rams were one bad call away from erasing a 28-3 deficit last week in Buffalo. Saints fans will tell you not to feel bad for L.A., and I don't, but the comeback effort should still have the league on notice. McVay is getting great production from his RB committee, and Jared Goff is getting his receivers the ball with better consistency this year. The Rams should roll the Giants and solidify themselves as a likely NFC playoff team.

Derrick: Rams (-12). Man, some people (me) thought this Giants team would've improved from a year ago. Last season they showed flashes of being good again. Long story short, I was wrong. This team sucks. The rams played a hell of a game against the 3-0 Bills last week. I think the Rams handle the Giants by more than 12.

New England Patriots (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) [-7]:

Tommy: Chiefs (-7). Everyone that has seen Kansas City play under Mahomes understands that only they can beat themselves. Even Bill Belichick will likely be overmatched by Andy Reid and this juggernaut of an offense. I just don't think Cam and the Patriots will be able to keep up in this one.

Derrick: Chiefs (-7). Welp. y'all know who I'm picking here. Until Patrick and Andy Reid show me otherwise, I'm putting money on KC. I think the Patriots will struggle trying to defend this upbeat, unorthodox offense KC brings. I like the Chiefs by at least a touchdown.

Buffalo Bills (3-0) @ Las Vegas Raiders (2-1) [+2.5]:

Tommy: Bills (-2.5). Even after squandering a 25 point lead against the Rams, Josh Allen was able to lead the offense down the field and win the game. Sure, they had a questionable call go in their favor, but that's football. "You play to win the game!" Allen and the Bills will stay undefeated after another close game in Vegas.

Derrick: Bills (-2.5). Only 2.5? Huh? Josh Allen is going to put on another crazy performance against this Raiders defense. This is one of the best spreads available imo. I think the Bills are the much better team even with the Raiders keeping things close in New England and beating the New Orleans Saints.

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia Eagles (0-2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-1) [-7]:

Tommy: Eagles (+7). The Eagles continue to look like one of the worst teams in football and injuries keep depleting them. Lucky for Philly, they face the only team in football that has been hit harder with injuries. I think San Fran pulls this one out, but the Eagles should keep it close against the 49ers second-string guys.

Derrick: 49ers (-7). Just wanted to let y’all know that I hate the Eagles right now. Every game has been a shit show so far for Philly, and unfortunately I don't see that changing even against a banged up 49ers team. This game is actually a must win for Philly, and I still wouldn't take them. I like the beat up 49ers to win by at least a touchdown on primetime (they should flex this game, nobody wants to see this).

Monday Night Football

Atlanta Falcons (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (3-0) [-7.5]:

Tommy: Packers (-7.5). Two things we know after week 3: The Falcons cannot defend agains the pass, and Aaron Rodgers is playing at an MVP level. Seems easy enough to me. I think Rodgers will torch Atlanta so badly that he'll vault to the top of MVP conversations.

Derrick: Packers (-7.5). Does it feel like Aaron Rodgers is playing pissed off? He is the highest graded passer in the league. Maybe its because Green Bay drafted Jordan Love in the first round this year? Who knows? Anyway, I like the Packers to win big at Lambeau. This Falcons team seems to just give away games, playing with no heart or desire to finish games. You cannot do that in the NFL especially against one of the GOATs. Go Pack Go for Monday night.

Derrick's Picks (28-20):

Jets (-1.5) v Broncos

Bears (+2.5) v Colts

Jaguars (+3) @ Bengals

Cowboys (-4.5) v Browns

Saints (-4) @ Lions

Seahawks (-6.5) @ Dolphins

Buccaneers (-7) v Chargers

Ravens (-12) @ Football Team

Cardinals (-3.5) @ Panthers

Texans (-4) v Vikings

Rams (-12) v Giants

Chiefs (-7) v Patriots

Bills (-2.5) @ Raiders

49ers (-7) v Eagles

Packers (-7.5) v Falcons

Tommy's Picks (29-19):

Broncos (+1.5) @ Jets

Bears (+2.5) v Colts

Bengals (-3) v Jaguars

Cowboys (-4.5) v Browns

Saints (-4) @ Lions

Seahawks (-6.5) @ Dolphins

Buccaneers (-7) v Chargers

Ravens (-12) @ Football Team

Cardinals (-3.5) @ Panthers

Vikings (+4) @ Texans

Rams (-12) v Giants

Chiefs (-7) v Patriots

Bills (-2.5) @ Raiders

Eagles (+7) @ 49ers

Packers (-7.5) v Falcons

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Week 4 Fantasy Football Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (Home v Jaguars)

I think Joe Burrow comes out firing against a Jaguars team that offered little resistance against Fitzmagic and the Dolphins last week. Burrow continues to struggle at times behind a horrible O-line, but that horrible O-line is making it impossible for them to run the ball. Burrow's volume should produce a solid fantasy floor in these weaker matchups.

Derrick: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams (Home v Giants)

I like Goff this weekend. He's gone over 30 his last two outings, and is in prime position to do it again against a horrible NYG team. Fire him up.

Running Backs

Tommy: Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals (Road @ Panthers)

Drake's production through 3 weeks has been extremely disappointing, but he gets a dream matchup against the Panthers here. Although he will continue to lose red zone carries to Kyler, he should be a focal point of the Cardinals' attack against the league's worst rushing defense.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (Road @ Bengals)

I wrote Robinson's name down for the column last week and erased it at the last second. He popped off for 30 ppr points and solidified himself as a fantasy starter moving forward. He gets another plus matchup against a Bengals team that has been gashed on the ground early this season.

Derrick: Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (Home v Cardinals)

Mike Davis is the PPR king while McCaffrey is down. He’s put up 15 (started playing in the 2nd half) & 23 his last couple games. He will be in charge of that backfield until CMC comes back and he is pretty much a RB2 until then.

Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos (Road @ Jets)

“Last week Melvin only rushed the rock 8 times. This had to do with the Broncos trailing the whole game. He did see 6 targets last week as well. This week he faces just an all around bad team in the New York Jets. With Denver’s starting QB Drew Lock hurt, look for Gordon to get the ball early and often. Phillip Lindsay is also still sidelined so his volume should be sky high tonight”

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (Home v Jaguars)

There's nothing better than a cheap QB-WR stack in fantasy which is exactly what Burrow and Boyd can provide this week. Boyd has easily been Burrow's best target through 3 weeks even with AJ Green still commanding targets and Higgins finding the end zone multiple times. Fire up Boyd in this fantasy-friendly matchup.

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers (Home v Falcons)

Lazard finally broke through last week going for over 140 yards and a score. I expect him to have another strong performance against a Falcons secondary that allows passing TDs at will. Rodgers is firing on all cylinders, and Lazard will be his top option if Davante Adams misses another week. Start Lazard even if Adams plays.

Derrick: DaVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (Home v Seahawks)

Parker finished last week with only 12 against Jacksonville. This might've had something to do with the fact that Miami led the whole game and controlled the pace. This week he’ll face the Seahawks secondary who struggled HARD against Dallas’ passing attack. I also think the dolphins will trail most of the game, so Parker could be in for a lot of volume and maybe even a garbage time touchdown.

DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars (Road @ Bengals)

I really like Chark this week against Cincy whose secondary has also struggled. Chark has popped off against some bad secondaries in the past. I also think this will be a close matchup, so I don't see the Jags only feeding Robinson this week. Chark also didn't play last week due to a chest injury, so fresh legs right?

Tight End

Tommy: Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts (Road @ Bears)

Alie-Cox has evolved into Rivers' favorite target over the past two weeks. With Pittman Jr. and Campbell out at receiver, Rivers will continue to look at his big tight end. He'll need to get the ball out early against the Bears pass rush, and Alie-Cox should be running those intermediate routes.

Derrick: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (Road @ 49ers)

I know this one is somewhat obvious, but he has struggled so far. Ertz is in prime position to come back to normal fantasy wise. With Dallas Goedart being sidelined for “multiple weeks,” he will probably play every snap.

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (Road @ 49ers)

Wentz was able to save face in the fantasy realm despite another terrible outing due to his rushing work. He's facing a 49ers defense that has been decimated by injury, but I still don't like his outlook at a fantasy starter until his play improves drastically. If the Eagles drop to 0-3-1, and Wentz looks like the same QB, he'll have Philly fans (prematurely) calling for his job next week.

Derrick: Daniel Jones, New York Giants (Road @ Rams)

Daniel Jones really showed some flashes in week 1. Since then, he's failed to put up more than 10 points. Another tough matchup this week against LAR. If you have him in your starting lineup hit the waiver wire now.

Running Backs

Tommy: Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens (Road @ Football Team)

I've had terrible foresight when it comes to RBBCs this season. But if I fade them, I'll never gain my readers' full trust. Dobbins and Edwards both looked better than Ingram on Monday night, and I think they've earned the red zone/3rd down work this week. Jackson should also be looking to gain a rhythm with his pass catchers after a terrible night throwing the ball Monday.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (Home v Jaguars)

Mixon is a player that I've lost a ton of trust in through 3 weeks. Some things aren't in his control (very little passing work, bad line play, play calling not getting him in space), but he's also failing to cash in when he gets goal line work. He's turned in to a fantasy liability especially in PPR. Due to his draft capital, you may have to start him and pray for a turnaround, but I encourage you to seek out a better option.

Derrick: Devonta Freeman, New York Giants (Road @ Rams)

If you had Saquon, I'm sure you went and picked up one of the Giants running backs off the waiver wire. Now is not the time. Freeman should eventually take over this backfield and have some fantasy relevance. That being said, I don't trust him against this LAR defense.

Miles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins (Home v Seahawks)

Gaskin showed he could be the guy last week against Jacksonville. He was the featured back with a full work load of 22 carries. This week he has a really tough matchup with Seattle’s run defense who has given up the second fewest rush yards in the league.

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions (Home v Saints)

Kenny Golladay's return on Sunday basically means that Marvin Jones Jr. is a bench guy unless he's in a dream matchup (Falcons, Seahawks, Jaguars, etc). Keep him stashed in case Golladay aggravates his hamstring but don't start him this week.

TY Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (Road @ Bears)

The Colts' #1 receiver has looked more like TY Red Roof Inn this season. He's yet to score double digits in PPR formats and has another tough matchup against the Bears. I'm sure if you own Hilton you're already planning on benching him. I'm just here to confirm those thoughts of yours.

Derrick: Darius Slayton, New York Giants (Road @ Rams)

Jalen Ramsey is most likely gonna man up with Slayton all day. Last year, Slayton showed us more than a couple big time performances but he's been quiet since week 1. Either way, I see a lot of pressure from Aaron Donald which means QB-WR timing will suffer.

Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears (Home v Colts)

Miller had a touchdown last weekend but should've had two. The Foles revamp could really give Miller some fantasy relevance but not this week as they face the colts who have one of the better pass defenses in the league. Although I think Robinson could have good game against this defense, I don't think Miller will have the volume sharing reps with the rookie Darnell Mooney.

Tight End

Tommy: Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (Home v Giants)

Higbee boomed for 3 TDs in week 2, but he only has received 11 targets through 3 games. He's still well behind Kupp and Woods as far as Rams pass catchers go. I think Rams will use their revamped rushing attack early and often, and those receivers should be available for Goff when he needs to throw.

Derrick: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints (Road @ Lions)

Cook has been disappointing besides week one. He hasn't gotten over ten points since his matchup with the Bucs. I don't like him in my lineup this week against the Lions who have only given up an average 3 catches to the TE position all year.