Week 3 NFL Picks + Fantasy Start/Sit

NFL Week 3 Predictions:

Week 2 will be remembered for the devastating amount of season-ending injuries. It was tough on the field and in the column. We missed the mark here in fantasy start/sit but managed to stay above .500 in game picks. Week 3 is here and we're ready for a bounce back!

Thursday Night Football

Miami Dolphins (0-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) [-3]:

Tommy: Dolphins (+3). The Dolphins entered the year with no expectations once again. Quietly, they competed all day against both the Patriots and Bills. Even after losing Byron Jones on D, Fitzpatrick was able to get that offense going and keep them in the game against Buffalo. I think Brian Flores' bunch gets their first win of the year off the short week.

Derrick: Jaguars (-3). "I’m going to take Jacksonville here for a few reasons. Jags are home on a short week, Gardner Minshew is currently tied for 2nd most touchdowns in the NFL & Miami’s defense is bad and playing without their best talent/highest paid player Byron Jones. I think this one could be a shootout because both defenses struggle, but I trust Jacksonville's offense to prevail."

Sunday 1 EST/10 PST

Chicago Bears (2-0) @ Atlanta Falcons (0-2) [-3]:

Tommy: Falcons (-3). This game could go either way for me. It all depends on whether or not that Bears front 4 shows up. The Bears' D has given up the third fewest points this season (36) but is middle of the pack in opponent YPG. Khalil Mack is going to have to have a monster game if the Bears want to slow down a Falcons offense they can't keep up with. I think a more desperate Falcons team pulls this out at home.

Derrick: Bears (+3). "I want to start by saying the Atlanta falcons blew ANOTHER 20 point lead. SMH!!!!!!! The Falcons looked amazing in the first half of last week's game against the Dallas Cowboys, but ultimately let the game slip away in the end. On top of having some bad morale after last week's loss, they are now down another offensive lineman & possibly Julio Jones. Bad timing against a Bears defensive line who can really put pressure on their opponents. I think Chicago is in a good place to cover the spread this week. They have found ways to win the past two weeks and should be gaining some much needed confidence. Bears."

Los Angeles Rams (2-0) @ Buffalo Bills (2-0) [-2]:

Tommy: Bills (-2). The best game of the early window is between these unbeaten squads. Josh Allen and Jared Goff have been two of the best QBs through two weeks, and this game will likely come down to which of those guys can limit mistakes. I think Allen & the Bills continue their early season success and prove they are a contender in the AFC.

Derrick: Rams (+2). "The LA Rams are coming off a very impressive win against the Philadelphia Eagles. They pretty much controlled the game the whole way through. While this was happening, the Bills were struggling to beat the Miami Dolphins. I think the Rams have found an identity on offense & Aaron Donald is unblockable. I think this game is decided by a close margin and I think the rams will win."

Washington Football Team (1-1) @ Cleveland Browns (1-1) [-7]

Tommy: Football Team (+7). I'm not even sure who I think will win this game, but I know I will never lay 7 points with the Browns, even on 10 days rest. I flexed out of Browns -5.5 last week against the Bengals and it was the right move. I'll keep fading Baker as he should have a tough day against this revamped Washington front 4. Washington will cover the 7.

Derrick: Browns (-7). "Baker and his weapons have to go on a run at some point right? The Browns got their first win last weekend against #1 overall pick Joe Burrow. Although it's not the most impressive win, it showed the Browns are good enough to beat the mediocre teams. I think they face another mediocre team this week and will cover the spread."

Tennessee Titans (2-0) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2) [+2.5]

Tommy: Minnesota (+2.5). Kirk Cousins has managed to keep a job because every time he bottoms out, he seems to bounce back. The Vikings have been on of the league's biggest disappointments, but I think they will give an inspired effort at home to avoid going 0-3. The Titans are 2-0 but still have a lot to prove to me after close wins against Denver and Jacksonville.

Derrick: Titans (-2.5). "Minnesota is struggling, hard. It could be the loss of their offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, or it could be the loss of their go-to receiver Stefon Diggs - either way its ugly. I fully expect the Titans to take this game over via the run game. This offense is simple but it has been clicking with Derrick Henry & Jonnu Smith. I'm taking Tennessee in a run game showdown."

Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) @ New England Patriots (1-1) [-6]:

Tommy: Patriots (-6). Belichick and Cam coming off a tough loss on Sunday night... scary sight for Vegas. The Raiders' Monday night's victory against the Saints kept them undefeated, but it also ensured that the Patriots will not enter this game unprepared. Carr has impressed thus far, but I expect the Pats to take away what he does well. Cam will put up enough points to cover at home.

Derrick: Raiders (+6). "Ooof, This pick would’ve been relatively easy if the Raiders didn't take down the Saints on MNF. Derek Carr and Darren Waller both looked great in a statement win over New Orleans. The Patriots also looked pretty damn good against a Seattle Seahawks team who is a serious Super Bowl contender. If we were talking money line I would take the Patriots here, but with the way the Raiders played last week I think they maintain this spread. LV lets go."

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) @ New York Giants (0-2) [+4]:

Tommy: 49ers (-4). Nobody has been hit harder with injuries than the 49ers. They even are tasked with returning to the hard-surfaced field that just took out a good chunk of their roster. The Giants are no stranger to the injury bug either as they lost their superstar Saquon Barkley to an ACL last week. I think the Giants take awhile to adjust, and Mullens does enough to lead the 49ers to a win and cover.

Derrick: Giants (+4). "San Francisco needs some milk!!! They’ll be without a significant amount of starters on Sunday against what seems to be another underwhelming Giants team. I honestly still like the 49ers to win this game. I think they are more well coached, more experienced, and still have the better defense even with the injuries. I do think NYG will keep this game close, so i'm taking them with the 4 point spread."

Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) [-6]:

Tommy: Bengals (+6). Another disappointing team early on this year has been the Eagles. Carson Wentz has regressed behind backup O-Linemen. Now they lose WR Jalen Reagor to an already unimpressive WR group. Coaching and defense might get them their first win against the lowly Bengals, but I think Burrow & co. can cover this number.

Derrick: Eagles (-6). "Both of these teams are just simply struggling right now. Both staring at 0-3, this will be a very important game for determining if either of these clubs can bounce back this season. With that being said, the Eagles are under so much more pressure. The Eagles were ranked as a top 10 team coming into this season and with all the money they put into this roster, it's safe to say some people could be on the hot seat if the Eagles lose Sunday. All in all, I'm going to take Philly to cover. Being at home, being healthy, having coaches make adjustments, should all spell for an Eagles win this week."

Houston Texans (0-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) [-3.5]:

Tommy: Texans (+3.5). The Texans obviously have had a brutal schedule to this point and a trip to Pittsburgh won't make things easier. I'm taking Houston here because I think their defense is prepared to stifle a Steelers offense that is nowhere near the level of KC or Baltimore. I think Watson can make enough plays in this one to show that he's still a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. Houston pulls the upset.

Derrick: Steelers (-3.5). "Deshaun Watson faced Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes in his first two weeks of the year. He took double digit loses in both of those contests. I think this week isn't too different. The Steelers look rejuvenated having Big Ben back this season, and I think this Steelers defense will hold up against Watson & his weapons."

Sunday 4:25 EST/1:25 PST

New York Jets (0-2) @ Indianapolis Colts (1-1) [-10.5]:

Tommy: Colts (-10.5). This is such a massive number for a Colts team that doesn't deserve it. The entire reasoning behind taking Indy here is all about the Jets. The Colts are dealing with some injuries, but their running game should still dominate this matchup. I expect the Colts to dominate time of possession and cover in a game that will look similar to last week's matchup against the Vikings.

Derrick: Colts (-10.5). "I honestly thought the Colts would be trash this year. They looked a lot better against the Vikings last Sunday. The Jets looked like the Jets through and through. I like the Colts to win big covering the spread in this matchup."

Carolina Panthers (0-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) [-6.5]:

Tommy: Chargers (-6.5). The Chargers looked super impressive last week taking KC to overtime in Herbert's first game. Carolina will have the advantage of preparing for Herbert all week unlike Kansas City, but I still think LA will cover here. Their running game has looked fine without Melvin Gordon, and the guys up front for them are really getting after the QB.

Derrick: Chargers (-6.5). "Justin Herbert took charge last Sunday after being announced as the started just a few minutes before kickoff. He really made the most of his opportunity. The Panthers on the other hand just lost their most talented player for 4-6 weeks. I like the Chargers to cover this spread in this one."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1) @ Denver Broncos (0-2) [+6]:

Tommy: Broncos (+6). Broncos lost Drew Lock last week but still managed to cover their spread against the Steelers. They also covered week 1 against the Titans. In the Week 1 column I talked about how difficult it is to go into Denver early on in the season and win. I think the Broncos will keep this game close all day by keeping it simple.

Derrick: Buccaneers (-6). "No Drew Lock? This Broncos team could be 'meh' without him. I see this offense struggling without his presence and ultimately losing this game. I think the Bucs have started to find their identity on offense and they’ll be getting Chris Godwin back this weekend to add to it. I like the Bucs by more than 6."

Detroit Lions (0-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-0) [-5.5]:

Tommy: Cardinals (-5.5). The Cardinals enter a stretch of games here that can solidify them as an NFC West contender. I don't think the Lions defense has the answers for how Kyler Murray can attack them. Expect a big day from Murray and his new favorite target Deandre Hopkins.

Derrick: Cardinals (-5.5). "I think the Cardinals are really making a splash so far this season. Kyler Murry + Deandre Hopkins have really been a problem for opposing defenses so far. I don't think this Lions defense has what it takes to stop them. I like the Cardinals by more than 5.5."

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-0) [-4.5]:

Tommy: Cowboys (+4.5). America's game of the week will included America's team facing off against MVP front runner Russell Wilson. I'm expecting a shootout from these two offenses. Nobody has looked better than Wilson early on, but the Seattle defense has shown holes. The Cowboys figured out their offense in that second half against Atlanta, and I expect their balanced attack to lead them to an upset Sunday,.

Derrick: Seahawks (-4.5). "I still cant believe the Falcons lost last week, which is why I like the Seahawks this week. I think the Seattle Seahawks are a top 3 team in the NFL right now. The sky is the limit for Russell Wilson. He now has the highest MVP odds. I think the Seahawks win this game by double digits."

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers (2-0) @ New Orleans Saints (1-1) [-3]:

Tommy: Packers (+3). I understand why Vegas is laying 3 points with the Saints at home here, but I'm not going against a red hot Rodgers - especially on Sunday Night Football. I think Brees will continue to dink and dunk the football without Michael Thomas, and that game plan won't be enough to keep up with the Packers.

Derrick: Packers (+3). "Packers are underdogs to a team who just lost to the Raiders. How sway?? Drew Brees and the Saints put up a stinker without MIcheal Thomas. MT will most likely be sidelined again this week, so I love taking the Packers here. I think they win on Sunday."

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-0) [-3.5]:

Tommy: Chiefs (+3.5). Six times in NFL history have the reigning MVP and reigning Super Bowl MVP matched up the following season. The reigning Super Bowl MVP is 6-0 in those matchups. I've been impressed with Baltimore early, but I'm taking Mahomes as an underdog 10/10. This game should be another classic like what we saw last year.

Derrick: Chiefs (+3.5). "GOTW!!! This is likely an AFC championship game preview. Both teams are loaded on both sides of the ball, both teams are coached by well established vets & both teams are Super Bowl contenders this year. I like the Chiefs to win this game by a small margin."

Derrick's Picks (20-12, 9-7 last week):

Jaguars (-3) v. Dolphins

Bears (+3) @ Falcons

Rams (-2) @ Bills

Browns (-7) v. Football Team

Titans (-2.5) @ Vikings

Raiders (+6) @ Patriots

Giants (+4) v. 49ers

Eagles (-6) v Bengals

Steelers (-3.5) v. Texans

Colts (-10.5) v. Jets

Chargers (-6.5) v. Panthers

Buccaneers (-6) @ Broncos

Cardinals (-5.5) v. Lions

Seahawks (-4.5) v. Cowboys

Packers (+3) @ Saints

Chiefs (+3.5) @ Ravens

Tommy's Picks (20-12, 10-6 last week):

Dolphins (+3) @ Jaguars

Falcons (-3) v. Bears

Bills (-2) v. Rams

Football Team (+7) @ Browns

Vikings (+2.5) v. Titans

Patriots (-6) v. Raiders

49ers (-4) @ Giants

Bengals (+6) @ Eagles

Texans (+3.5) @ Steelers

Colts (-10.5) v. Jets

Chargers (-6.5) v. Panthers

Broncos (+6) v. Buccaneers

Cardinals (-5.5) v. Lions

Cowboys (+4.5) @ Seahawks

Packers (+3) @ Saints

Chiefs (+3.5) @ Ravens

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Week 3 Fantasy Football Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Cam Newton, New England Patriots (Home v. Raiders)

Cam Newton is the best running back in the AFC East. We're used to Cam attacking the end zone, but what impressed last week was his arm. He was able to attack Seattle every which way, and I think that the Patriots will control this game because of everything Cam offers. Expect another top 10 finish.

Derrick: Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars (Home v. Dolphins)

"Minshew goes up against a weak Miami defense missing their top star Byron Jones. He has looked impressive this year through two games and I expect more on a short week."

Running Backs

Tommy: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (Home v. Football Team)

Last week, Hunt proved that this Browns backfield can be a two-headed monster. Both Hunt and Chubb scored twice, and I expect a bunch of touches for them both moving forward in Stefanski's offense. Baker will need to get rid of the ball quickly in this one which could lead to a lot of dump downs to Kareem. Showtime.

Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers (Road @ Giants)

Last week, my waiver wire start 'em pick was a complete dud (Nyheim Hines 1.4 ppr points). Game script and Jonathan Taylor ruined his day, but it is hard to find a way that McKinnon isn't heavily used for the 49ers Sunday. San Fran relies on their running game, has no Jimmy G, no Tevin Coleman & no Raheem Mostert. Should be a big McKinnon day, start him with confidence.

Derrick: Miles Sanders. Philadelphia Eagles (Home v. Bengals)

"Miles had a great fantasy day against the Rams last week. He faces one of the worst run defenses in the game and will probably be the focal point of this Eagles offense going forward. No more questions on his status moving forward when healthy. Start him."

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (Home v. Panthers)

"Ekeler lived up to fantasy expectations last week. He had over 100 yards from scrimmage and hauled in 4 catches. He is positioned to have a great week going up against Carolina’s run defense which ranks last in the league."

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (Home v. Panthers)

Keenan Allen can always be a frustrating fantasy option because of his lack of TDs. He's given us one dud week and one solid week thus far. I think the matchup is favorable against the Panthers, but I mainly love him as a security blanket for Herbert. Herbert got more comfortable throwing toward Allen as last Sunday's game went on, and I expect a ton of targets this week.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants (Home v. 49ers)

Slayton followed a 2 TD performance in week 1 with a dud week against the Bears. He's the last man standing for Daniel Jones with Saquon and Sterling Shephard on IR, so I think he'll be a target monster this week. The 49ers pass rush is depleted by injury, so Jones should get time in the pocket even with a poor offensive line. Slayton is a solid FLEX option this week.

Derrick: Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (Road @ Browns)

"McLaurin popped off last week against the Cards. He was shadowed by Patrick Peterson and still managed to pick up 25 FPTS. This week he has a great matchup against the Browns & their banged up secondary. Must start."

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (Home v. Raiders)

"Edelman had a career day against Seattle last weekend. He seems to still be the go-to guy in New England and that's why he makes the start list this week. This young Raiders secondary could struggle against the seasoned vet."

Tight End

Tommy: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (Road @ Jaguars)

Gesicki showed last week what he can do for this Dolphins offense. He worked the middle of the field against the Bills to the tune of 27 ppr points. I don't know if you can expect another monster performance like that, but you should feel comfortable throwing him into your TE slot with a favorable TNF matchup against Jax.

Derrick: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans (Road @ Vikings)

"The Titans don't seem likely to get last year's rookie standout AJ Brown back this week. The offense will lean heavily on Derrick Henry and Jonnu Smith again. He brought in 4 catches for 84 yards and 2 TD grabs last week. He plays a weak Minnesota team and is a must start unless you have Kelce, Andrews, Waller or Kittle."

Sit 'Em

Quarterback

Tommy: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (Road @ Patriots)

I think a lot of the top QBs are looking at shootouts this week, so I'm gonna go with Carr here opposite Cam Newton, my start pick. I think Patriots move the ball and keep it away from Vegas. I also think LV will lean heavy on the run game even with some offensive linemen out due to injury.

Derrick: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (Home v. Packers)

"The vet struggled heavily without Micheal Thomas. He's set to be without his star receiver again this week and he also faces the highest graded corner of the year so far, Jiare Alexander. Sit him."

Running Backs

Tommy: Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons (Home v. Bears)

I think Atlanta will look to rely on Matt Ryan and that dangerous passing game early. Gurley has had a healthy amount of rushes through two weeks, but isn't really getting targets in the pass game. I think that makes him TD reliant this week, and I don't like his chances of getting in.

All Rams RBs, Los Angeles Rams (Road @ Bills)

There isn't enough clarity as to who may go and who may not for the Rams backfield this week, but it's looking like Darrell Henderson is going to get the nod. Even if Akers or Brown plays, I think the entire backfield should be faded. There's too many questions marks and you should find another FLEX option until they are answered.

Derrick: Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Road @ Broncos)

"I'll keep this one quick. Jones lost his starting spot to Fournette after fumbling a handoff from Brady last week. Fournette looked like the much better back after he got in. Jones will have to prove that he has the job back before I even think about starting him."

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills (Home v. Rams)

"Singletary faces one of the best run defenses in the league this week. It also doesn't help that he splits his carries with the rookie. I recommend sitting him if you have more practical options, but I don't hate him as a flex play if you need a filler."

Wide Receivers

Tommy: Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (Road @ Steelers)

Cooks makes me sit list just as Fuller V makes Derrick's. The fact of the matter is, outside of Deshaun Watson and David Johnson, there are no comfortable starters on this Texans offense. Until they get healthy and know what they want to do, fantasy owners need to wait it out. Once we're given some clarity, Cooks or Fuller V should be a sure starter eventually.

TY Hilton, Indianpolis Colts (Home v. Jets)

I'm expecting a heavy dose of the run game for the Colts in this one. Even when Rivers has been passing, he hasn't been finding Hilton. I just don't think Rivers has the arm to push it downfield like he once had.

Derrick: AJ Green, Cincinnati Bengals (Road @ Eagles)

"AJ will likely be occupied by Darius Slay on Sunday who still hasn't given up over 75 yards to his opponents. His matchup doesn't bode well for fantasy success. I would sit him."

Will Fuller V, Houston Texans (Road @ Steelers)

"I'm not trying to be dramatic but he makes my hate list this week. He faces a top 5 defense and his production is already suspect. He managed to give us a goose egg last week against Baltimore. I wouldn't start him if I had other options I was thinking about on the bench."

Tight End

Tommy: Dalton Shultz, Dallas Cowboys (Road @ Seahawks)

Even after a monster performance against Atlanta, I'm not comfortable starting Shultz just yet. The Cowboys have 3 top options on the outside, and everything for them starts behind Zeke Elliot. I'm not sure the volume will be there in a game where Dallas doesn't get down by 20 (just yet). Keep an eye of Shultz this week, but keep him on the bench if you have another viable option.

Derrick: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns (Home v. Football Team)

"Maybe one of the biggest busts of the year so far is Hooper. Last season he brought in top 5 TE numbers. This year so far he has only managed to combine for 7.7 points. He faces a Washington defense who has a really good front seven. I wouldn't play him, there are some good waiver wire options."